Beijing: China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising United States tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.Growing signs of weakness in China -- which has generated nearly a third of global growth in past decade -- are stoking worries about risks to world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.
Chinese policymakers have pledged more support for economy this year to reduce risk of massive job losses, but they have ruled out a "flood" of stimulus like that which Beijing has unleashed in past, which quickly juiced growth rates but left a mountain of debt.Analysts polled by Reuters expect world's second-largest economy to have grown 6.4 percent in October-December quarter from a year earlier, slowing from previous quarter's 6.5 percent pace and matching levels last seen in early 2009 during global financial crisis.That could pull 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 6.6 percent, lowest since 1990 and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017.With stimulus measures expected to take some time to kick in, most analysts believe conditions in China are likely to get worse before they get better, and see a further slowdown to 6.3 percent this year.
Some analysts believe real growth levels are already much weaker than official data suggest.Even if China and United States agree on a trade deal in current talks, which is a tall order, analysts said it would be no panacea for sputtering Chinese economy unless Beijing can galvanize weak investment and consumer demand.
Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said investors should not expect latest round of stimulus to produce similar results as during 2008-09 global crisis, when Beijing's huge spending package quickly boosted growth."What China can really do this year is to prevent deflation, prevent a recession and a hard landing in economy," Chen said.
On a quarterly basis, growth likely eased to 1.5 percent inOct-Dec from 1.6 percent in preceding period.China will release its fourth-quarter and 2018 GDP data onMonday (0200 GMT), along with December factory output, retailsales and fixed-asset investment.Since China's quarterly GDP readings tend to be unusually steady, most investors prefer to focus on recent trends.Surprising contractions in December trade data and factory activity gauges in recent weeks have suggested economy cooled more quickly than expected at end of 2018, leaving it on shakier footing at start of new year.Sources have told Reuters that Beijing was planning tolower its growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from around6.5 percent in 2018.Tepid expansion in industrial output and weaker consumer spending is squeezing companies' profit margins, discouraging fresh investment and raising risk of higher job losses.Some factories in Guangdong - China's export hub - have shut earlier than usual ahead of long Lunar New Year holiday as tariff war with United States curtails orders.
Others are suspending production lines and cutting back on workers' hours.If trade war drags on, some migrant workers may not have jobs to return to.Trade negotiators are facing an early March deadline and Washington has threatened to sharply hike tariffs if there are no substantial signs of progress.Stimulus steps eyedSo far, Chinese policymakers have fast-tracked construction projects and cut taxes and some import duties to spur demand.To free up more funds for lending, particularly to more vulnerable smaller firms, central bank has cut amount of reserves that banks need to set aside as reserves (RRR) five times over past year, and guided borrowing costs lower.Further RRR reductions are expected in coming quarters, but most analysts do not see a cut in benchmark interest rates just yet, as policymakers wait to see if earlier steps begin to stabilise conditions.
More forceful easing could pressure yuan and aggravate high debt levels, with money going into less efficient or speculative investments.
The government may unveil more fiscal stimulus measures during annual parliament meeting in March, including bigger tax cuts and more spending on infrastructure projects, analysts say.Some China watchers believe government could deliver 2 trillion yuan ($295.13 billion) worth of cuts in taxes and fees this year, and allow local governments to issue another 2 trillion yuan in special bonds largely used to fund key projects.Still, some analysts do not expect economy to bottom out convincingly until summer.($1 = 6.7767 Chinese yuan renminbi)