(Analysis) The BRICS diplomatic bloc will convene in Russia later this month, with two of its members, Moscow and Tehran, currently embroiled in conflicts.Security is on the official agenda.
Analysts worry that Russia and China might push for military discussions within the group.This could potentially lead to a future military alliance.
Such a scenario could put Brazils national defense system at risk.Concerns about BRICS militarization grew after Russias invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Moscow has used its BRICS participation to show its not isolated politically or economically.The summits theme is Multilateralism for Fair Social Development and Security.
Russia, as the host, may steer political and economic talks towards military matters.Irans recent membership adds to this trend, given its involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Russia and Iran already have a bilateral military agreement.The Potential Militarization of BRICS: Implications for Brazils Defense Strategy.
(Photo Internet reproduction)They exchange drones and missiles for fighter jets.
China and Brazil signed a treaty in April to promote a peace plan for Ukraine.
This plan would favor Russia.International analysts believe Moscow will use the summit to gain political support.
It may also seek new military partnerships and possibly start discussions about turning BRICS into a military alliance.Dr.
Gunther Rudzit, a political science expert, warns of potential consequences for Brazil.
He says joining these military agreements could make Brazil lose access to Western military equipment.Brazil has a history of relations with Western nations.
Most of its military arsenal comes from NATO countries.
Under former President Bolsonaro, Brazil became an extra-NATO member.The Potential Militarization of BRICS: Implications for Brazils Defense StrategyThis allowed Brazil to buy advanced combat equipment and participate in joint exercises with the US.
Vitlio Brustolin, a Harvard researcher, emphasizes Brazils deep NATO connections.Brazilian soldiers train with NATO.
The navy has trained in the Black Sea with NATO forces.
Brazils new submarines are built in partnership with France.The army has Italian-made combat vehicles.
The air force flies Swedish-made Gripen jets.
Brustolin warns that misaligning foreign policy with defense strategy is risky.Replacing NATO equipment with Russian or Chinese weapons would cost billions and be economically unfeasible.
President Lula has been moving closer to China and Russia in his third term.He shares their vision of a new world order based on multipolarity.
Lula has questioned US hegemony and supported the idea of a BRICS common currency.He has made statements interpreted as supporting Putin in the Ukraine conflict.
This stance worries analysts about Brazil potentially joining a BRICS military alliance.The BRICS group already has a Working Group on security collaboration.
They discuss terrorism, cybersecurity, and information sharing.
Recent meetings have emphasized the need for defense cooperation.Russia organized the 14th such meeting this year.
Putin participated and held bilateral talks with member countries.
Topics included the future world order and overcoming Western-imposed rules.Some analysts view the military alliance discussions as Russian rhetoric.
Dr.
Rudzit suggests its an attempt by Russia to show its not isolated.BRICS Military AlliancePutin has been using BRICS to ease his isolation caused by Western sanctions.
Russia has strengthened ties with other enemies of the West, including North Korea, Iran, and China.Experts point out structural problems in forming a BRICS military alliance.
China and India, both BRICS members, have long-standing border disputes.Individual country interests may override alliance formation.
Forming a military alliance requires a willingness to die for other countries and spend money on defense.
The BRICS countries may not be ready for such commitments.Existing bilateral military agreements among BRICS members may make a formal alliance unnecessary.
For example, Iran and Russia already trade drones.
China sells microchips to Russia, supporting its military production.These arrangements have led to Western sanctions on Chinese companies.
The future of BRICS militarization remains uncertain, but its potential impact on global politics is significant.