TEHRAN In a world significantly shaped by stories, optimism can be utilized in a preemptive strike.
While current rhetoric from U.S.
President Donald Trump and his confidantes oscillates between dangers of dismantlement and a sense of measured optimism relating to a potential deal with Iran, Irans strategic persistence should be translated to strategic care at this phase.
Iranian policymakers understand better than to be drawn into the illusion of goodwill.Threats and browbeating have actually been important components of U.S.
diplomacy towards Iran.
This positivity, nevertheless, must be interpreted within its correct context, that is, the structure of Trumps mindset.
Trumps erratic positive buzz must in no other way be taken yet another tricks of his eccentric character, a signal of concession or genuine desire for balance, however rather as a computed tacticpart of a broader strategy designed to form expectations, manipulate Iranian market belief, and press the psychological balance of settlements in Washingtons favor.Trump, a seasoned transactional mediator and investor in both business and politics, is entirely conversant in stock exchange parlance, a deft monetary manipulator, and well-versed in crafting stories.
He has controlled markets for years; why not apply the exact same strategies to settlements? Negotiations that, from his point of view, are simple transactional bargains.By predicting self-confidence in the result of future settlements, he is raising the viewed expense of failure, not for the U.S., however for Iran.
The higher the cost of failure, the more extreme the pressure on Iranian mediators.
Trump is being preemptively positive on the result, intending to ripple through Irans public opinion sphere and put internal pressure on Irans economic and political organizations.
The Iranian economy, extremely sensitive to diplomatic signals, typically responds positively to the mere possibility of a deal, just to deal with volatility and sharp declines if settlements falter or collapse under the weight of American maximalist demands.
From this angle, it is entirely logical for Trump who may have made part of his fortune in gambling or other adventurous monetary arrangementsto pump up expectations surrounding the talks.
Should the result fail to emerge, the resulting burst of that optimism could trigger a market free fall in Iran, serving his tactical interests without any perceived cost to his side.
Whats there to lose? In a sense, Trump is not investing in the talks, he seems to be speculating!Moreover, such statements are not made in a vacuum however are often created to push hardliners in Washington by painting Iran as the reluctant or recalcitrant party must settlements collapse, hence, egging them on for more pressure against Iran.
This framing can reverberate through the international diplomatic arena.
Expectations of an offer are not only bound to markets; in fact, many actors throughout the worldwide political spectrum watch out for the results.
The greater the positivity, the steeper the fall for Iran in case of failure!Thus, it is crucial that Iran avoid projecting reciprocal optimism without substantive progress.
Iranian mediators are cognizant of the fact that there is another side to the President of Peace: President of Pressure!It is safe to presume that Trumps optimistic tone is less about peace and more about pressure.
In todays world, it is beside impossible to insulate the domestic economy and public expectations from the volatility of external elements, especially in a pluralistic, well-connected society like Iran.
As long as the settlements drag on and the American side keeps it positive, they will be the ones keeping and gaining from the momentum.
This upbeat posture is less an olive branch and more a chess relocation.
Iran needs to increase to the difficulty and balance this preemptive optimism with its own narrative.
This article very first appeared/also appeared in Tehran Times