Brazil

After the good performance of public finances in 2022, Chile would again deepen the deficit as of the 2023 Budget presented by the Socialist Government.The IMF forecasts an imbalance close to 1.2% of GDP by the end of the year.Gabriel Borics government continues to threaten the fundamental pillars of the growth model that boosted Chiles economy in the last 40 years.President of Chile, Gabriel Boric (Photo internet reproduction)The 2023 Budget threatens to abandon fiscal discipline, severely increasing the need for internal and external indebtedness.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Chiles primary deficit will reach 0.68% of GDP in 2023 after having recorded a comfortable surplus on a cash basis of around 2.14% of GDP in December 2022.Likewise, according to the agencys estimates, the consolidated fiscal deficit would reach 1.2% of GDP.Despite the fact that the 2023 Budget allows for a significant increase in tax resources, expenditures will grow even more.Public investment expenditures will grow by 5.5% annually in 2023, and social security spending will increase by up to 8%.But in contrast to these measures, by 2023, the Chilean economy is expected to enter a recession along with Argentina.Chiles consolidated fiscal deficit between 1990 and 2022, and IMFs projections for 2023 (Photo internet reproduction)Since most of the distribution of new expenditures is concentrated in direct transfers and not public consumption per se, the measures will not have a major positive multiplier effect.On the contrary, the increased tax burden will contribute to actively constraining the economys aggregate supply and its ability to recover the pre-pandemic growth trend.Taxes will be especially distortionary for the tradable sector of the Chilean economy.Borics government authorized the imposition of withholding taxes on mining exports at rates varying from 2% to 32%, and the wealth tax (the counterpart of Argentinas property tax) will come into force at rates ranging from 1% to 1.8% on taxable assets.The pension reform is the second unbalancing factor of the reforms, not only because of the increase in the States fiscal obligations for the coming years but mainly because of the retraction of domestic credit in local currency.The Chilean capital market was developed based on the savings of the individually funded system, and the pension reform systematically penalizes it.The Socialist Government boasted about the strong fiscal results achieved in 2022, eliminating the primary deficit and reaching a financial surplus for the first time in 10 years.However, it should be noted that the 2022 Budget was prepared by the government of former President Sebastin Piera and precisely sought a major reorganization of the States finances.The fiscal measures of the previous administration were perceived (and enjoyed) by Gabriel Borics administration, but the real Budget of socialism will take place as of this year and with its due consequences in terms of fiscal responsibility and public spending.The economys growth explains about 80% of the sustainability of public revenue, and only the remaining 20% corresponds to changes in tax rates in the short term.The arrival of recession in 2023 conditions Minister Mario Marcels goals for the current fiscal period.With information from Derecha Diario





Unlimited Portal Access + Monthly Magazine - 12 issues


Contribute US to Start Broadcasting - It's Voluntary!


ADVERTISE


Merchandise (Peace Series)

 


Mexican Peso Maintains Six-Month High as Mexico Navigates Economic Crosscurrents


Brazilian Authorities Uncover $1.1 Billion Pension Fraud Targeting Millions


Iron Ore Slips Below $100 Mark as China Demand Concerns Persist


Silver Navigates Trade Tensions and Supply Deficit as Prices Edge Upward


Copper Market Rebounds Amid Trade Optimism Despite Global Economic Concerns


Crude Rebounds: Brent and WTI Rally from Multi-Month Lows as May Trading Begins


Gold Rebounds from Two-Week Low as Trade Tensions Ease and Market Eyes Jobs Data


Bitcoin Climbs as Altcoins Diverge, ETF Hopes and Policy Moves Shape Crypto Market


Ibovespa Holds Steady as Global Volatility and Local Fundamentals Collide


Santander Brasil Posts Strong Q1 Profit, Underlines Strategic Value for Parent Group


Eurozone Growth Outpaces Forecasts but Faces Trade Headwinds


Uncertainty Over Peso Drives Argentine Soybean Sales to Decade Lows


Peru’s Largest Bank Tests Bitcoin Trading, Eyes New Payment Solutions


WEG’s First Quarter: Growth Outpaces Peers, But Margins Face Pressure


Ukraine and U.S. Forge Rare Earths Pact to Counter China's Supply Chain Grip


U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge on Lower Mortgage Rates, Inventory Rises


Import Surge Ahead of Tariffs Drives U.S. GDP Down in Early 2025


High Earners Flee New York: $9 Billion Income Shift to Conservative Florida


German Inflation Slows, but Service Sector Costs Remain Stubbornly High