The likelihood of ECOWAS, with Nigeria at the forefront, pursuing military action against Niger seems minimal.In anticipation of the upcoming ECOWAS summit, insiders from the Nigerian government indicate that the West African coalition wont support military action in Niger following the recent coup there.A key driver behind this sentiment is Nigerias influential entities push for peaceful dialogue.Notably, domestic pressures, including from the nations prominent Muslim leaders and the political establishment, emphasize the need for restraint and dialogue rather than military intervention.ECOWAS forces.
(Photo Internet reproduction)The Nigeria Parliament and the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA) advocate for dialogue and caution against intensifying sanctions on Niger.Their concerns highlight the long-standing relationship between the two countries, emphasizing Nigers support in Nigerias fight against extremism.Financial considerations also play a significant role.Nigeria, still grappling with an economic downturn, cannot bear the financial load of a potential conflict.Past military engagements in Liberia and Sierra Leone, which drained about US$12 billion from Nigerias coffers, are a stark reminder of the financial implications.Furthermore, given the ongoing battles against insurgencies domestically, Nigerias military resources are stretched.As Niger initiates moves towards restoring democracy by appointing an interim prime minister, the focus for ECOWAS and Nigeria seems to tilt towards diplomatic resolutions instead of military interventions.Expert David Aworawo suggests that ECOWAS will likely pursue a peaceful resolution, emphasizing the return to civilian rule in Niger.He advises caution, reflecting on past successful diplomatic resolutions in the region, and points out the potential negative impacts of military action on regional unity and safety.