The International Energy Agency reports that oil prices rose slightly on April 11, 2025, morning.
Brent Crude Oil trades at $63.665, up $0.160, a 0.25% gain.WTI Crude Oil reaches $59.77, increasing $0.131, a 0.22% rise, after hitting $59.63631 earlier.
A fierce US-China trade war drives this volatility, with President Trump imposing 125% tariffs on Chinese goods.China retaliates with 84% tariffs on US products, stoking global recession fears.
Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of a US recession, while JPMorgan predicts a 60% likelihood.On April 10, oil markets faced a sharp selloff, with Brent dropping $2.15 to $63.33, a 3.3% decline.
WTI fell $2.28 to $60.07, down 3.7%, amid a broader market downturn.The Dow Jones plummeted 1,000 points, and the VIX volatility gauge surged 22%.
OPEC+ plans to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, up from 135,000 barrels.Oil Prices Edge Up Amid Trade War Tensions and Supply Fears.
(Photo Internet reproduction)This decision, alongside record US production of 13.59 million barrels per day, signals oversupply risks.
The IEA forecasts a global oil surplus of 600,000 barrels per day in 2025.Crude Oil OutlookChinas economic slowdown adds pressure, with March inflation missing targets and crude imports declining.
Chinese policymakers meet today to discuss stimulus, as non-OECD crude stocks dropped 45.3 million barrels in January.Meanwhile, Middle Eastern tensions, like Iran-Israel conflicts, support Brents stability.
Technically, WTI trades below the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a bearish trend with support at $58.65.Resistance looms at $62-$63, while Brent faces gamma effects from a $12 drop since April 2.
The 50-day EMA for WTI stands at $63.75, with RSI at 51.
Investment flows reflect uncertainty, with the United States Oil Fund seeing $275 million in inflows, then $98.7 million in outflows.The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF reports a $72.2 million outflow.
Global oil markets saw $11.6 billion in net inflows by April 4.
US shale struggles as prices fall below the $65 breakeven point, despite high output.Proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which supply 70% of US crude imports, threaten further disruption.
Europes gas market tightens, with prices up 8% due to low storage after a cold winter.The IEA projects global oil demand at 103.9 million barrels per day in 2025, growing 1 million barrels daily.
Supply may hit 104.5 million barrels per day, led by non-OPEC+ nations.
Goldman Sachs predicts Brent at $62 and WTI at $58 by December 2025.This oil market story reveals a fragile balance, with trade wars, oversupply, and geopolitical risks driving uncertainty.
Investors watch closely as global economic slowdown looms, and OPEC+s moves could either stabilize or deepen the markets woes in the coming months.