Japans grand strategy is undergoing significant changes as the country faces a declining power status, writes Yusuke Ishihara in the East Asia Forum.The Yoshida Doctrine, which guided Japans economic recovery after World War II, emphasized a US military presence for security and avoiding excessive military buildup.Although the doctrine achieved its economic goals by the 1970s, Japan continued to adhere to its principles to address concerns from neighboring countries.However, as Japans decline became evident, key assumptions of the Yoshida Doctrine became outdated.Japans evolving grand strategy: navigating decline and shifting alliances in a changing Asia.
(Photo Internet reproduction)In recent years, Japan has expanded its military options by acquiring long-range missiles and easing self-restraints.It maintains a strong alliance with the US, aiming to influence Washingtons thinking and promote regional stability comprehensively.Japan has expressed concerns about the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and emphasizes coexistence rather than a confrontational approach.Japans emergent grand strategy extends beyond its interactions with the US and includes regional economic diplomacy.The goal is to mitigate the negative impact of Japans declining material strength on international influence by overturning long-standing self-restraints.The specific details of Japans evolving grand strategy are still being developed, with crucial questions to address.One important aspect is how Japan can effectively manage its relationship with China by leveraging its anticipated elevated influence.Japan aims to reassure China and foster regional partnerships while influencing the US alliance.Symbolic steps, such as a summit with Chinas leader and direct communication between defense organizations, demonstrate Japans efforts to cultivate a positive relationship.Progress in Japans China policy could have broader implications for regional stability and the Asian regional order.The success of Japans evolving grand strategy, despite its decline, hinges on cultivating a modus vivendi in Asia that prevents the escalation of regional disputes and promotes peaceful coexistence among neighboring countries, including Japan and China.The trajectory of Japans evolving grand strategy and its impact on the regional order will undeniably shape the future of Asia.