INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Gains of four consecutive sessions helped equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty wrap up the week gone by in the green as solid
inflation and IIP prints and signs of thaw in US-China trade ties overshadowed an adverse state election outcome to alter market
direction.
On a weekly basis, BSE Sensex advanced 289 points, or 0.81 per cent, while Nifty gained 111 points, or 1.05 per cent.
Going into
the new week, crude oil prices, rupee movement and global sentiment would become important triggers for the market
Here is a list of some key factors that may sway market mood during the week
Let's take a look.
Parliament's winter session: The winter session of Parliament started on Tuesday, December 11
The 29-day session, which ends on January 8, 2019, will be the last full session of the NDA government before the 2019 general elections
The market will keenly watch the developments during the session, which may see introduction of some important Bills
Any fiscal stimulus or major economic reform does not look imminent; but the government may still go for some populist sops to boost its
prospects in the general elections 2019 after the drubbing in the assembly polls
Among the bills that the government looks focussed on are the Companies (Amendment) Bill, 2018, the triple talaq bill and the Indian Medical
Council (Amendment) Bill, 2018.
Fed meet: The US Federal Reserve will decide on key rates this week
While the market is expecting a rate hike for the fourth time this year to 2.25-2.50 per cent, Fed's tone signalling the course of future
rate hikes is what investors will observe closely
Fed's rate hikes and US-China trade tussle have roiled stock markets and affected the economic growth to a significant extent
With large parts of the US equity market in the bearish territory, investors will hope for comforting words from the Fed and a slower or no
rate hikes in 2019, said a Reuters report.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) meet: Although BoJ will remain on a steady course as it has said before that
monetary policy may be on hold at least until the end of the financial year 2020, Japan's central bank may not ignore how slowing Chinese
demand and trade war have shrunken Japan's economy the most in four years
has raised some expectation that bond markets could be allowed to trade in a slightly wider range
Bank of England (BoE): The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates unchanged amid the Brexit chaos
Some analysts expect BoE to act as soon as the British PM reaches a settlement with the EU
A weak US data will only aggravate concerns of a global slowdown when China and Europe already look low-spirited on the economic front
Technical outlook: Nifty50 closed a session of rangebound trade on a flat note on Friday
Weakness can emerge again if the index breaks below its 200-day moving average (10,756), which appears to be acting as a support for last
two sessions, as Nifty has bounced back after testing the said average, market experts said
"Nifty witnessed a great week to close above 10,800, but the last two days saw it face resistance near the 10,830 level
Similarly, Bank Nifty recovered strongly, but needs to cross the 27,050 level for further upward movement
Bank Nifty would move in a range between 26,140 and 27,350
Some volatility is anticipated and chances of some profit booking cannot be ruled out in the coming days," said Vaishali Parekh, senior
technical analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.
