INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Image copyrightVictor Fraile RodriguezImage caption
China is now trying hard to encourage women to have more children
When China ended its one-child policy three years ago, there was hope couples would have a second child to help slow the pace
But the move isn't working, reports London-based China analyst Yuwen Wu.The declining birth rate is now one of the most talked-about topics
across China - and there's a real sense of crisis
After decades spent trying to curb the population, state propaganda slogans now exhort couples to "Have children for the country", prompting
criticism on social media that government policy is intrusive and insensitive.Measures now being discussed range from extending maternity
leave to encouraging people to have a second child with straight cash incentives or tax breaks
Some are even calling for limits on the number of children to be abandoned altogether.Aimed at curbing population growth, China's
one-child rule was introduced in 1979, a year after economic reforms
The policy was strictly enforced for most people
Those caught violating the policy could be fined, lose their jobs or face forced abortions and sterilisation.But the fertility rate had
already gone into steep decline a decade earlier.For years China benefited from demographic dividends - its massive population (almost a
fifth of the world's ) provided plenty of manpower - and manageable numbers of very young and old people - to fuel the country's rapid
economic rise.Now all that is disappearing, fast.In order for China to continue its economic development and support its aged, the
population needs to grow rather than decline
The ending of the one-child policy in 2015 was meant to boost this, but the data suggests the opposite - despite the freedom to do so now,
young people don't seem to want more children
How big a problem is the low birth rateAccording to China's National Statistics Bureau, there were 17.86m births in 2016, and the Chinese
population grew by 1.31 million, with a rate of 12.95 births per 1,000 people, the fastest since 2001.But in 2017, which should have seen
the full effect of the two-child policy, there were 17,230,000 births, a decrease of 630,000 compared with 2016; the birth rate stood at
12.43 per 1,000, down 0.52% from 2016.This is below even the most pessimistic forecast before the new policy was introduced.Predictions for
the future look even bleaker: The birth rate will continue to decline from 2018 onwardsIn the next 10 years, the number of Chinese women
aged 23-30 will decrease by 40%, a huge drop in this child-bearing age groupIn 10 years' time, there will only be about 8 million births per
yearNot surprisingly, the looming crisis has got everyone talking.On 6 August, the Communist Party's official newspaper People's Daily
devoted a whole page to the issue, including an op-ed entitled "Having children is a family matter but also a national matter".The editorial
warned that the state needed new policies to deal with the impact of the low birth rate on the economy
This prompted much coverage and debate in the media.Image copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption
A Chinese state media
outlet called having children a "national matter"
One article in Xinhua Daily - by two scholars from Nanjing University -
They suggested a birth fund be set up, to which everybody below the age of 40 contribute
If a couple were to have a second child, they could withdraw money from the fund; if not, they would have to wait until retirement
"Fined whether one has a child or not - please stop targeting people's wallets," was just one of the articles in response to the idea,
which has been labelled inconsiderate, unfair and unnecessary
Some urged the state to address the root cause of why young people don't want more children and try to lower the cost of raising a child,
rather than penalising people financially.Why so urgent nowChina is fast becoming an ageing society
As well as the birth rate falling, people now live longer - life expectancy was 66 when the one-child policy was introduced, and it is now
This will put great strain on China's economy in the decades to come.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of people
aged 15-64 topped 1 billion in 2013, but has been declining steadily since and will continue to do so.At the same time, the number of old
In 2017, China's total population stood at 1.39 billion - including 158 million people aged 65 and over, constituting 11.4% of the
That's more than one and half times the UN's definition of an ageing society (when 7% of the population are 65+)
The UN's 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects forecasts that 17.1% of the Chinese population will be over 65 by 2030.This trend
entails that old people are supported by fewer and fewer people of working age
According to an article by Ning Yi published on ifengweekly, there were 3.16 young people for each old person in 2011; by 2016, the age
dependency ratio was down to 2.8
It is predicted that by 2050, it will be just 1.3.As in other countries with similar age ratio projections, this has huge implications for
the economy, for paying pensions and for meeting elderly care needs
Why aren't people having more childrenMany young people in China who grew up during the three decades of strict family planning and
break-neck economic development have a different mindset from their parents.They are used to being the centre of attention and enjoying much
better material wealth and personal freedom
They are also marrying late (if at all), having children late (if at all), and focusing more on their own careers and happiness, a trend not
confined to China.Image copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption
More young people in China today no longer consider children
to be their main priority
When they contemplate starting a family, one big concern is whether they can afford it.Surveys
show that on average, raising a child in a city can cost more than half of a Chinese family's income
Childcare places are always oversubscribed, so many have to rely on grandparents for help
And then there's the mortgage and other burdens on the family budget.In other words, to have one child is a struggle; to have another
needs even more resources and support.None of the young people I talked to recently in China wanted a second child
"Our generation has a tremendous burden on our shoulders," one woman, who did not want to be named for this article, told me
"Our ageing parents, our young children, our own careers
These combined together can easily crush us."The woman, who is in her 30s, already has a five-year-old son, but she and her husband have
decided not to provide him with a sibling
Lack of childcare is a big reason."So what often happens is we hire nannies to look after the baby, and ask our parents to keep an eye on
the nanny." How the one-child policy changedImage copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption
China is finding it hard to
encourage population growth
1979: Government proposal encourages all couples to have just one child1982: Family planning
becomes basic state policy2000: A couple can have a second child, if both of them are only children2013: Couples allowed to have a second
child if one of them is an only child2015: End of one-child policy and all couples are allowed to have a second child.On the other hand,
some older women, already in their early 60s, were quite firm that had the one-child policy ended earlier, they would have tried for another
child, even up to their late 40s
So, did the one-child policy go on for too long And was there a robust enough national debate Many people are now asking these questions
Were China's leaders slow to act All censuses carried out after 1990 point to the rapid decline of the total fertility rate (the average
number of children born to a woman over her lifetime) in China, which is lower than the 2.1 needed as a replacement fertility rate
But there has been fierce disagreement over the true figure
For instance, a population survey in 2000 indicated the total fertility rate was an alarmingly low 1.22; family planning officials, however,
marked it up to 1.8, arguing many births were unreported
In the end, the authorities went with 1.8
Might the difference mean that an otherwise urgent situation was downplayed and action delayedImage copyrightGetty ImagesImage caption
Some are asking if the one-child policy was allowed to go on for too long
Even today, one struggles to find an
authoritative figure for China's current total fertility rate - some put it at 1.2-1.4; others between 1.5 and 1.7 - which is lower than
in the US (1.8) or India (2.3).Some did voice their concerns and call for changes to stem the decline in population growth, but little heed
appears to have been paid.More than a decade ago Ye Tingfang, a member of China's top political advisory body, the CPPCC (Chinese People's
Political Consultative Conference) argued that it is against nature to intervene in the reproduction process
He tabled a motion at the 2007 People's Congress session, calling for an end to the one-child policy as soon as possible.The State Family
Planning Committee told him the country would not change the one-child policy
His follow-up petition met with silence.Other dissenting voices include a book in 2012 entitled "Are there too many Chinese" written by
James Liang and Jianxin Li, two professors from Peking University
They argued that China's birth rate had become too low, and if the trend continued, the country would age too fast, the economy would
suffer and society would become unstable
They urged adjustment to family planning policy as well.It is difficult to guess what went on behind the scenes with decision makers; the
fact is, it was not until 2013 that we saw some relaxation of the one-child policy
Do two children make you richThese days one thing that has changed is there does seem to be more open discussion about population matters
in China.In some places authorities have stopped collecting fines for children borne outside of the quotas.Some experts propose using 2% to
5% of GDP to encourage births, through tax reductions and cash incentives
Others say people should be allowed to have as many children as they want.Image copyrightReutersImage caption
China's
2019 stamps, showing two parent pigs and three piglets, were interpreted by many as a way of encouraging couples to have more children
And there is a lot of propaganda - which people poke fun at."'One child makes you poor, two children make you rich' - it's too
soon for such slogans, we need some breathing space!" shouts one netizen."'You regret if you don't have children, and you have nobody to
look after you when you grow old' - this is so against what we were told growing up (to marry late and have fewer children)
The change is too fast!" laments another.Mock posters are doing the rounds too.And this is really what has changed
Individuals happen to be more free-thinking now and independent - and not easily swayed by propaganda or lukewarm incentives.They live for
themselves, not for the country any more.It turns out it is much harder to encourage population growth than to curb it - in the end, it's
down to individuals to make the decision
