INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
By Liau Y-Sing and Kartik GoyalIf you lost money on emerging Asian bonds and currencies this year, be warned: the first half 2019 may see
more of the same.
In what could be an unwelcome replay, risk assets are likely to remain at the mercy of the United States -China trade war,
a messy Brexit and rising United States interest rates
Almost all emerging Asian currencies are expected to weaken by the end of June, while bond yields are forecast to rise for countries
emerging-markets portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co
Asia Dollar Index has fallen almost 5 percent this year, set for the biggest annual decline since 2015
A Bloomberg Barclays index of emerging Asian government debt is heading for its first annual loss in three years.
While the United States
and China are scheduled to meet in the second week of January for trade talks, Citigroup Inc
pledge more stimulus.
Positive SignsThere are at least some reasons to be hopeful for emerging Asian assets: oil prices have dropped about
40 percent from their October peak, which is a boon for countries that import the commodity
Central banks remain vigilant, while a growing number of analysts, including those at Goldman Sachs Group Inc
and UBS Group AG, say the dollar is close to its peak.
Meanwhile, positions betting the dollar will strengthen are near the highest in
United States dollar as we transition into the new year, but slowing global growth and continued trade frictions will contribute to a
factors that will be important in 2019 are the extent of the slowdown in China and the ability of the authorities to keep the CNY stable as
Bloomberg survey of 30 investors, traders and strategists
Stocks, currencies and bonds of developing economies have found a floor and will probably outperform their developed-nation counterparts
next year, the survey found.
