INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Lower GST and a pipeline of films high on theatre-experience, in Hindi, regional languages and English, have prompted analysts to enhance
earnings outlook for leading multiplexes.
According to various estimates, analysts have revised their EPS estimates for PVR and Inox Leisure
in range of 8-15 per cent for FY20.
The government reduced GST on tickets priced above Rs 100 to 18 per cent from 28 per cent
And for tickets priced below Rs 100, GST is reduced to 12 per cent from 18 per cent.
Two possibilities emerge in this situation
Either multiplexes would pass on benefit of reduced GST or they might raise ticket prices
In both situations, multiplexes stand to gain
Increasing average ticket prices - in range of 5-10 per cent - would boost revenues
In past three fiscals average ticket price has risen in range of 2-6 per cent.
On other hand, passing on benefit of lower GST would boost
footfalls, which would help increase food and beverages revenues and in-cinema advertising as more eyeballs allow theatre owners to
negotiate better deals with advertisers
Analysts believe that for at least next six months, multiplexes would pass on benefit of GST, which would help increase
footfalls.
Furthermore, footfalls are likely to rise in coming months given large number of theatre-experience films hitting screens
Over past few years, producers have been increasingly backing films that work largely on theatre experience or on sheer strength of novelty
of content (biographies, unique concepts, and films based on history or actual events)
Producers have realised that audiences require a concrete reason to visit multiplexes as watching films in theatres is gradually losing its
relevance given high costs and availability of other sources of engaging entertainment.
In 2019, Hindi pipeline would include Manikarnika,
Kesari, Takht, Uri: The Surgical Strike, Brahmastra, Panipat, Stree 2, and Taanaji: The Unsung Warrior
Hollywood films due for release this year include Avengers Endgame, Captain Marvel, Aladdin, Godzilla, X-men, and Once Upon Time in
Hollywood.
On valuation front, according to Bloomberg, stocks of PVR and Inox Leisure are trading at EV/ EBIDTA of 12.5 and 9, respectively,
This is quite attractive compared to past threeyear average EV/EBIDTA of 17.7 for PVR and 14.5 for Inox.
