INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
By DK Aggarwal Calendar 2018 can be marked as a very tough year for investors, as markets witnessed volatility of diverse magnitude due to
global and domestic factors
At home, volatile crude oil prices, depreciating rupee, rising interest rates across globe and liquidity concerns in NBFC space roiled
sentiments of market participants.
However, situation is quite different now; crude oil prices which had touched a high of $76.89 have
cooled off now by 40 per cent and rupee has paused its downside slide
Going forward, crude prices are expected to stabilise in $55 -60 a barrel range
With fall in crude prices, India's macroeconomic mathematics will not go into risky territory as market had earlier feared.
Meanwhile,
domestic currency has appreciated by a good margin to below 71 from 74.40 level
Earnings growth outlook for Indian companies are looking better as margins are likely to improve from low crude oil prices as well as softer
commodity prices due to subdued global growth outlook.
After recent market correction, stocks valuation have come down to somewhat
valuations are now slightly better than when we started in 2018.
Along with foreign investors, we may see huge participation from mutual
Several measures taken by market regulator Sebi will help increase penetration of mutual funds.
On IPO front, calendar 2019 looks promising,
clearance and those of many companies such as Aakash Education, AGS Transact Technologies, Devi Sea Foods, Anmol Industries and
Barbeque-Nation Hospitality, to name a few, are in pipeline.
During 2018, Main-board IPOs garnered Rs 30,959 crore and SME IPOs brought in
Rs 2,254 crore.
On debt market front, as oil prices continue to slip and RBI is likely to continue Open Market Operations (OMO), which
should support bond market
The Indian bond market, especially G-sec segment, will become more widespread and it would draw more investments from retail
investment.
Going forward, domestic market will continue to track global factors.
Brexit negotiations will remain hard, trade war remains an
At home, as we head into election season, political uncertainties may rule market, but in long term, market will continue to grow along with
economy.
All in all, market will move higher amid volatility
India is poised to grow further coupled with earnings recovery, and this will further boost sentiment of investors, both domestic and global
Those companies, which are using artificial intelligence, digital transformation will emerge new leaders of market going forward.
