INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
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The Singapore summit was a historic moment, but are Mr Kim and Mr Trump on
the same page now
US President Donald Trump has said he will hold a second nuclear summit with North Korea's leader Kim
Jong-un in Vietnam on 27-28 February.The two leaders face a number of challenges as they prepare for the meeting.Challenge 1: Getting past
the pageantry Both Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un made the most of the press extravaganza surrounding their choreographed reconciliation at
the Singapore summit in June 2018.Perhaps they could just about get away with breaking the ice at that historic meeting
But the vaguely worded statement it produced hasn't resulted in any concrete action towards the US goal of dismantling North Korea's
nuclear weapons, and Pyongyang is frustrated by Washington's refusal to ease sanctions
So the pressure's on for them to come up with something tangible.The difficulty here is that they've personalised the nuclear
confrontation: they like to deal with each other directly, and have done so by exchanging letters and warm words
The concern in Washington is that this arrangement works better for Mr Kim than for his pen pal Mr Trump - the president famously likes to
rely on his instincts, while the chairman has mastered the brief
The solution to that is working-level negotiations to sort out details before the summit
That didn't happen last time, but it is happening now
A real achievement would be a summit agreement for a framework to keep them going at the expert level
Challenge 2: Getting on the same pageAt the Singapore summit, the US and North Korea agreed to the "complete denuclearisation of the Korean
But they didn't say what that meant, which gets to the heart of whether a deal is even possible
For the US denuclearisation involves North Korea unilaterally giving up its entire nuclear weapons arsenal and allowing verification by
international inspectors.Image:The nuclear word Trump and Kim can't agree onFor North Korea it means that America take "reciprocal" steps
pulling back its ability to threaten Pyongyang with nuclear armed forces in the region
Much of that is non-negotiable for the Americans, but perhaps not all
President Trump, to the chagrin of his generals, has made clear he would like to bring home US troops stationed in South Korea, although he
has said he has no plans to do so at the moment
Whatever the case, Kim Jong-un has not formally committed to a written definition of denuclearisation
Experts say he should be pushed to do so, and to agree to a detailed roadmap of how to get there
But last week the state department's North Korea envoy Stephen Biegun at least acknowledged the disconnect over disarmament goals, and
said coming to an agreement with the North Koreans would have to happen "over time".Challenge 3: Getting action on denuclearisationSignals
from both sides have raised expectations of some action at the summit
Pyongyang has offered to destroy all its facilities for making nuclear bomb fuel, according to Mr Biegun, if the Trump administration takes
Kim Jong-un has telegraphed that these would have to involve some form of sanctions relief, and some form of security guarantees, such as a
declaration formally ending the Korean War
The Americans seem to be softening their demands for significant denuclearisation steps upfront, apparently adopting more of the
action-for-action approach advocated by Mr Kim.There are reports of a deal involving partial sanctions relief in exchange for a freeze on
North Korea's nuclear and missile weapons production (Pyongyang has stopped the testing, but not the production)
The challenge would be to ensure that this would lead to concrete steps for dismantling the nuclear weapons North Korea already has
The concern here is that Mr Trump might strike an ad-hoc interim deal without a clear path to denuclearisation
Challenge 4: Getting realisticVirtually anyone in Washington who knows anything about North Korea thinks that Kim Jong-un won't abandon his
nuclear weapons programme
It's too important a deterrent, director of national intelligence Dan Coats told a senate committee last week
He said the country's leaders "ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival", especially against a US attempt to
Instead, experts believe Mr Kim is trying to create the diplomatic climate necessary for North Korea to be accepted as a nuclear state
He did make some intriguing statements in his New Year's Day speech, declaring that Pyongyang would neither make nor proliferate nuclear
weapons as part of its commitment to denuclearisation
Some former Pentagon officials go so far as to argue that it would make more sense to pursue dialogue on arms control, rather than arms
Regardless, many analysts conclude that progress on denuclearisation won't be possible unless the regime feels secure, and Kim Jong-un can
be convinced he doesn't need his nuclear weapons to hold on to power.
