INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
For Jet Airways India Ltd., it's always only about one rupee.As I wrote last month, the troubled full-service carrier needed to garner an
additional 1 rupee (1.4 cents) per available seat kilometer to make up for its cost disadvantage against no-frills rivals
Cutthroat price competition denied it that opportunity, and now banks are picking up a majority stake - at a price of 1 rupee for 11.4
21.Beyond that, the details of the rescue plan are fuzzy.How much of the airline's Rs 7,654 crore ($1.08 billion) borrowings will get
TheIndianSubcontinent pegs the reduction at Rs 1,000 crore
On the other hand, Chief Financial Officer Amit Agarwal said on a conference call that the deal with banks would cut the debt burden by (you
But Etihad, which is expected to lead the round, doesn't want to trigger India's takeover code, which will then force it to buy shares
The solution, according to Livemint, may be a Rs 4,000 crore rights issue to which lenders (as new equity owners), as well as Etihad and
Goyal will subscribe.Banks will get into trouble if the rescue eventually fails, like it did in the case of a 2011 debt-to-equity swap at
the now-defunct Kingfisher Airlines
So they will probably want to share the risk with a new investor
consensus seems to favor 50 percent-plus ownership by banks and the NIIF; a 22 percent to 25 percent stake with Goyal, who currently
controls 51 percent; 12 percent with Etihad, diluting the Middle East carrier by half; and the remaining shares with the public.To this Rs
4,000 crore equity infusion, add the Rs 1,700 crore aircraft debt, which can be repaid by selling Jet's 16 planes and leasing them back
estimated Rs 8,500 crore funding deficit can be plugged
As for the remaining Rs 2,800 crore, this gap will close only if lenders agree to convert a part of their loans into a quasi-equity-type
BloombergQuint says cumulative redeemable preference shares, carrying a 0.01 percent coupon, may be part of the toolkit.On paper, the plan
Yet Jet shares, which have dropped 70 percent over the past year, haven't reacted
After all, minority shareholders will also get diluted together with Etihad and Goyal
The founder might lose his board seat
Who'll be in the cockpit instead of him State-owned banks (plus NIIF) will have control, but they don't know how to run an airline
Besides, even as Jet turns into a semi-state-owned carrier, taxpayers already have another mouth to feed
The government tried to sell 76 percent of Air India Ltd., together with $5 billion in debt; there were no takers for the unprofitable flag
carrier.Between them, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd.'s IndiGo, Jet Airways and SpiceJet Ltd., the three publicly traded Indian airlines, lost Rs
20 crore per day between April and September because of high oil prices and a weak rupee, according to ICRA, the local affiliate of Moody's
And yet the world's fastest-growing aviation market is gripped by a mad expansion it can't stop.IndiGo, the biggest of the three, will
increase its passenger carrying capacity by 34 percent between January and March despite a crippling pilot shortage and a 75 percent profit
slump in the previous three months
SpiceJet, which had a passenger load factor of 90.9 percent in January, announced 12 new domestic flights on Tuesday
With 90 more aircraft to be added to the Indian fleet over the 12 months starting in April, cheap tickets will continue to dog
profitability.As long as IndiGo and SpiceJet keep ratcheting up the competitive tempo, only a well-capitalized Jet Airways will be able to
stay in the ring, especially if oil prices spike again or the rupee collapses
However, state-owned banks, fearing investigation by the authorities in case the turnaround fails, will try to economize on haircuts on the
That might not leave the airline with enough of an equity cushion to stomach near-term losses
The new majority owners will also want an early exit
A combination of squeamishness and impatience could doom this airline's second take-off.(Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist
covering industrial companies and financial services
He previously was a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews
He has also worked for the Straits Times, ET NOW and Bloomberg News.)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal
The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of TheIndianSubcontinent and TheIndianSubcontinent does not assume
any responsibility or liability for the same.
