INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Volatility marked the proceedings on Dalal Street throughout last week, as headline indices Sensex and Nifty swung between gains
and losses as investors remained wary about the Indo-Pak tension and political uncertainty in the run-up to general election.
However, there
was a gradual ebb in volatility by the end of the week, as volatility gauge India VIX, fell some 3.75 per cent to end at 15.45 on
Friday.
During the week, Sensex broke its nine-day losing streak, its longest in almost eight years
On a weekly basis, the 30-share index inched up marginally by 63 points, or 0.17 per cent
macroeconomic numbers will decide the course for the market.
Let's take a look at the factors that will dictate market movement in the week
ahead: FO expiryThe domestic stock market may witness increased volatility as February series futures options contracts expire on Thursday,
and investors roll over positions to March series
Nifty futures saw a flattish close at 10,809 last Friday
On the options front, maximum Put open interest was seen at 10,700 followed by 10,400 strike, while maximum Call OI was at 11,000 followed
by 10,900 strike.
US-China talksOffering big relief to markets across the globe, the ongoing US-China trade talks sending out some positive
US President Donald Trump's optimistic tone is expected to bolster market mood
Media reports suggested the US might extend the deadline to raise tariffs and Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may meet next
month to ink an amicable trade agreement.
GDP numbersAll eyes will be on India's third quarter GDP numbers to be released on Thursday,
India's growth this financial year is projected at 7.2 per cent
GDP expanded at 8 per cent, 8.2 per cent and 7.2 per in the previous three years
According to a Niti Aayog, while the world GDP growth would be 3.7 per cent in 2018-19, India is likely long 7.2 per cent growth
The median estimate for seven emerging market economies (Brazil, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Russia, South Africa and Turkey) is 3.5 per
cent.
Infrastructure output, fiscal deficit dataFiscal deficit and infrastructure output numbers for January will be released on Thursday
Both are major macroeconomic indicators which can say a lot about the health of the economy and its prospects in the near future
Fiscal deficit narrowed in December but still stood at 112.4 per cent of the budget estimate of Rs 6.24 lakh crore for 2018-19.
Political
landscapeGeneral elections are expected to take place in April-May
There are speculations that the Election Commission of India may announce election dates in the first week of March
Financial markets hate political and economic instability and cannot keep aloof from political developments ahead of a key election
Talks of alliances and projections possible outcome will continues to sway the market in the weeks ahead.
Crude oilCrude oil prices have
been on an upward trajectory again amid tight supply from Opec and its allies
Moreover, hopes of a trade deal between the US and China have also boosted oil prices, which touched their highest since mid-November on
emergence of buying at lows
Given the current set-up, the index has the potential to rally towards its 200-DMA at 10,861 and possibly 10,915 over the next few days,
said Arun Kumar, Market Strategist at Reliance Securities
From a weekly point of view, it will be important for Nifty to move past and remain above the 10,790 level on a closing basis
Unless this happens, it will remain vulnerable to bouts of selloff at higher levels, said Milan Vaishnav, technical analyst.
