INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
BENGALURU: How Indian shares fare this year will depend heavily on the outcome of national elections in May, with market experts polled by
Reuters saying a majority win for the ruling party would be the most favourable outcome for equities.
Since hitting a record high of
38,989.65 on August 29, the BSE Sensex has fallen roughly 8 per cent
This year, it is down about 0.3 per cent as there has not been the kind of recovery from late 2018's deep equities selloff that other
major stock indices have had.
The absence of a 2019 rally partly driven by increasing uncertainty before the election, reflected in a second
consecutive cut to 2019's outlook in the latest quarterly Reuters poll of 50 equity strategists.
The polling was conducted on February
13-26 before the escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan after both sides said they shot down each other's fighter jets.
The
Sensex is forecast to gain 2.7 per cent to 36,960 by mid-2019 from Tuesday's close of 35,973.71, just a touch lower than the 37,000
predicted three months ago
The index is then expected to rise to 37,975 by end-2019, a downgrade from 39,400 forecast in November's poll.
Late last year, the ruling
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost power in three key states, handing Prime Minister Narendra Modi his biggest electoral defeat since he took
office in 2014.
"Despite the recent state election outcomes, the base case assumption continues to remain, with the incumbent party coming
back to power for another term," said Hitesh Agrawal, retail research head at Religare Broking.
"This will be taken positively by the
market, which likes certainty and continuity, especially on the policy front
Any other general election outcome will lead to a knee-jerk reaction."
RECOUPING LOSSES But at best, Indian stocks are forecast to only
recoup losses they incurred late last year.
If the BJP wins a majority of seats, that would help the Sensex gain over 7 per cent in the
election's immediate aftermath, according to strategists who answered an additional poll question.
However, if BJP falls short of a
majority and has to form a coalition to stay in power, Indian stocks are expected to rise only half that much
If the Indian National Congress (INC) party wins a majority, Indian shares were predicted to rise about 2 per cent immediately after the
But the Sensex is forecast to fall 3 per cent if an INC-led coalition forms the next government.
An alliance of regional parties would be
the worst outcome, knocking the market down 7.5 per cent in the vote's immediate aftermath, according to the poll replies.
Rajat Agarwal,
Asia equity strategist at Societe Generale, said the equity market "is sanguine about politics at this point".
But while a return of the
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Modi's leadership "should be hailed by the market, equity markets could de-rate in the near-term
if the BJP loses", he noted
The tepid outlook for Indian stocks also stems from a slowing domestic economy that has dampened investors' interest in already over-valued
stocks.
India's economic growth likely slowed again in the final three months of 2018 after a worse-than-expected performance in the prior
The October-December growth number will be reported later on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India, which surprisingly cut interest rates on
February 7, is widely expected to cut them again in coming months, according to a separate Reuters poll.
That could also provide a boost to
Nearly 90 per cent of strategists who answered a separate question said earnings growth, which has failed to rise at a significant pace
over the past four years, will improve.
Societe Generale's Agarwal called the elections a "risk event for equity markets in the near-term"
But a study of past ones "suggests that beyond the short-term reaction, the equity markets align themselves to the trajectory of corporate
"The medium-term prospects of the equity markets are well supported by the earnings recovery, domestic liquidity and a new private capital