INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
FRANKFURT: The European Central Bank changed tack on its tightening plan on Thursday, pushing out the timing of its first post-crisis rate
hike until 2020 at the earliest and offering banks a new round of cheap loans to help revive the euro zone economy.
The bolder-than-expected
move came as the United States Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are also holding back on rate hikes
It underlined how a global trade war, Brexit uncertainty and simmering debt concerns in Italy are taking their toll on economic growth
across Europe.
The policy changes cast ECB President Mario Draghi once again as nurturer of confidence in the bloc's still-fragile
economy, only months after the bank announced the end of four years of unprecedented asset purchases, and as Draghi himself prepares to hand
over the reins to a successor later this year.
Whereas the bank had previously said rates would remain at their record low levels through
the summer, it said it now expected them to stay there "at least through the end of 2019".
While investors had long stopped pricing in an
ECB rate hike this year, few expected the bank to change its policy message at this meeting
The surprise move caused yields on government bonds to fall and the euro slipped to $1.1244, about 0.6 percent down on the day, after the
announcement.
"We are (in) a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty," Draghi told a news conference as he announced cuts to
the bank's growth and inflation targets.
Noting that, unusually, the ECB had not changed its assessment that risks are tilted to the
downside even after tweaking policy, Draghi cited external factors such as protectionism, the still-uncertain nature of Britain's exit
from the European Union and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.
"In a dark room you move with tiny steps -- you don't run but you do move,"
Draghi said of the bank's efforts to provide guidance to financial markets in a period of uncertainty.
"Today we are not behind the curve
-- but we weren't even before."
The ECB now sees euro zone growth at barely 1.1 percent this year, compared to the 1.7 percent it projected
in December.
In addition, it launched a third Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO III) consisting of two-year loans partly aimed
at helping banks roll over 720 billion euros in existing TLTROs and so avoiding a credit squeeze that could exacerbate the economic
slowdown.
Commercial banks have already started restricting credit in the face of falling industrial output and exports.
As reported by
Reuters, the new loans will carry a floating rate tied to the ECB's main refinancing operation, currently set at zero.
"Like the
outstanding TLTRO programme, TLTRO-III will feature built-in incentives for credit conditions to remain favourable," the ECB
said.
U-TURNThursday's announcement came four years to the month after the ECB launched a quantitative easing (QE) asset purchase
programme to prevent sub-zero inflation from further hitting an economy still reeling from the euro zone debt crisis.
In total it spent some
2.6 trillion euros ($2.94 trillion) buying up mostly government, but also corporate debt, asset-backed securities and covered bonds, at a
pace of 1.3 million euros a minute.
The ECB's move to extend the horizon for steady rates was likely to be perceived as a policy reversal
for the central bank that only ended bond-buying in December and which had signalled an interest rate hike for later this year.
"It is
clearly an attempt to stay ahead of the curve and to avoid unwarranted tightening of the ECB's monetary stance," ING economist Carsten
Brzeski wrote in a note to clients.
"At the same time, however, it is also a bit of a gamble as any next step from here to tackle a severe
downswing of the economy would now require unprecedented measures."
