INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Political pundits took Rahul Gandhi seriously for the first time in 2009 after he led the Congress party's campaign in Uttar Pradesh and
managed to double the party's vote-share, winning 21 out of the 80 seats in the state
This could be a game-changer for the Congress, said the analysts, UP is the doorway to Delhi, and Rahul has managed to find the key.Of
course, five years later, the Congress was all but wiped out
Only the Gandhis retained their Lok Sabha seats, and the party's vote share dropped to its lowest ever
But Rahul's early success explains his soft corner for UP
It also explains why the Congress has unleashed its potential star, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, to charm voters in the eastern part of the
state.The Congress has pinned its hopes on Priyanka's much talked about mass connect and natural charisma to revive its lost base in Uttar
PradeshThe truth is that Priyanka and Rahul are wasted on UP
The Congress needs about 120-130 seats to be able to lead a multi-party coalition government at the centre
And it doesn't need UP for that
Instead, Rahul needs to shift focus on to the states where his party is in a direct contest with the BJP and not up against multiple
opponents like in Uttar Pradesh where the Congress has been excluded from the alliance between Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati
Key amongst these are the three Hindi belt states the Congress won in December last year.Let's start with Rajasthan
If one adds up the votes in each assembly constituency and converts them into Lok Sabha leads, the Congress is ahead in 14 of the 25 seats
It is also within striking distance of the BJP in another 5 seats, where the saffron party leads by less than 20,000 votes
If Rahul can spend time in these constituencies and convert them for his party, the Congress could end up with as many as 19 seats in
Rajasthan, where it won no seats at all in 2014.The Congress is eyeing a clean sweep in Rajasthan with its ''mission 25'' encouraged by the
win in the assembly pollsSimilar calculations for Madhya Pradesh show the Congress is ahead in 13 of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state
Again, the BJP leads by less than 20,000 votes in another three seats
Hard political work in these seats could push the Congress ahead of the BJP.The Congress is in a position to sweep Chhattisgarh, winning
nine of the 11 seats in the state
Add that to the potential seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and the Congress has an outside chance of winning as many as 44 of 65 seats
in these three Hindi heartland states
That is exactly what it won in the entire country in 2014.The Congress won Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, while it fell two seats short of the
majority mark in Madhya Pradesh in last year's assembly pollsThere are three other big states which have elected new governments in the past
two years: Punjab, Gujarat and Karnataka
If one translates the assembly numbers into Lok Sabha seats, the Congress has a good chance to win seven of 26 seats in Gujarat and it is
less than 20,000 votes behind the BJP in another three seats
Rahul will need to focus his energies on these 10 seats to make a significant dent in the BJP's fortress.The Congress is best placed in
Punjab, where it could win nine of 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state
This is Amarinder Singh territory and all that Rahul needs to do is to let the Captain call the shots and win the state for the party.Punjab
Chief Minister Amarinder Singh during an election campaign (File photo)In some ways, the Karnataka polls last summer were the most important
in Rahul Gandhi's political career
Even though the Congress was the larger party, it shed its traditional hubris and offered to back HD Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister
Rahul proved that he had come of age by moving faster than Amit Shah, the grandmaster of cobbling together post-poll alliances to form
governments.On paper, and in Excel sheets, the Congress-JDS alliance is unbeatable
Together, they won 56 percent of the popular vote in the Karnataka assembly polls, nearly 20 percentage points ahead of the BJP
That put the alliance ahead in 22 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state
Of these 'winning' seats, the Congress is contesting 15 and the JDS 7.Karnataka's ruling coalition partners, the Congress and the JD(S), had
formed the government after striking a post-poll alliance in May last yearNow pause and add up the numbers in these six states that we have
looked at - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Punjab and Karnataka
The Congress could win as many as 68 of the 132 Lok Sabha seats here
It won just 15 seats in these states in 2014.If opinion polls are to be believed, the Congress should also do well in Jharkhand and Assam
It could get anywhere between 10 to 15 seats in these two states, which account for a total of 28 Lok Sabha seats
Add that to the states we have already discussed, and the Congress has a chance of winning 75-80 seats of the 160 here.That leaves 383 Lok
Sabha seats in the rest of India
Out of these, the Congress is a strong player in Kerala with its 20 seats and Maharashtra which has 48, where opinion polls show it winning
7-9 seats up from the two it took in 2014
In the DMK, it has a strong alliance partner in Tamil Nadu with its 39 seats
It could win a seat or two by riding on the RJD in Bihar
The Congress also has a significant presence in pockets of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal, Haryana, Delhi and in the North Eastern
states.The Congress needs to identify another 70-odd seats out of these 383 where it has a chance of winning
It needs to convert 40-45 of them to reach the magic 120 number
In other words, the Congress needs to concentrate all its energy, money and strategic planning on 230-odd seats.And that means, not just
Rahul, but Priyanka too, has to forget UP
In the Congress party's scheme of things, it simply doesn't matter.(Aunindyo Chakravarty was Senior Managing Editor of
TheIndianSubcontinent's Hindi and Business news channels
He now anchors Simple Samachar on TheIndianSubcontinent India.)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal
The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of TheIndianSubcontinent and TheIndianSubcontinent does not assume
any responsibility or liability for the same.Get the latest election news, live updates and election schedule for Lok Sabha Elections 2019
on TheIndianSubcontinent.com/elections
Like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter and Instagram for updates from each of the 543 parliamentary seats for the 2019 Indian general
