INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: While BSE Sensex is barely 600 points (or 1.6 per cent) away from its all-time high of 38,989 hit last August, only five index
expect the index to hit fresh highs going forward, a majority index stocks are unlikely to hit their record high levels.
Data showed half of
index stocks need to rise at least 18 per cent from current levels to hit their respective record highs
of the Sensex pack has been a concentrated one
Some stocks have played catchup of late
But if we remain at these levels or somewhat higher levels, some stocks will perform
combined market value of the five index stocks hitting all-time high levels (in 2019 so far) has climbed 6.19 per cent since August 2018,
even as the rest 25 saw a 7 per cent erosion in their combined market value.
What does it mean It means only a few stocks have driven up the
It was the case with the rally that the index saw from November till the start of February.
Risk-reward turning favourableWhile some
a potential gain of over 8 per cent
The foreign brokerage is betting on cyclicals over defensives and exporters
These sectors have the highest weight in the Nifty pack.
Morgan Stanley said the Indian equity market could start pricing in a stronger
election outcome in the coming weeks, which may help Nifty break its four-month range on the upside.
Kotak Institutional Equities doubts the
be largely over, with weaker reward-risk balance for many largecap and midcap stocks after a 10-30 per cent rise in many stocks over the
It says Asian Paints and Bajaj Finance, which are near record high levels, are now at prices above their fair values.
Data suggests HDFC,
Asian Paints, LT, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HCL Technologies are among the stocks that are up to 10 per cent away from making fresh record
They hit their all-time high levels between February and September last year.
Can banks anchor rallyAK Prabhakar of IDBI Capital said Bank
Nifty has hit an all-time high level ahead of the NSE barometer
Prabhakar says the ongoing rally has legs
from the corporate banking and industrial segments could emerge as new leaders, but others like those from auto and metals sectors continue
A lease of life for battered stocksSince its February 19 low point, when Sensex hit sub-35,300 level, a few underperforming stocks have
NTPC has rallied 18 per cent to cut its losses since August 2018 to 5 per cent
The stock still needs to rally 84 per cent to reclaim its high point hit in January 2008.
YES Bank is up 15 per cent from February low, but
is off 33 per cent from its August 2018 high
This stock needs to rally 65 per cent to reclaim Rs 404 level it had hit on August 20,2018.
Vedanta, Coal India, Sun Pharma and ONGC are
among the stocks that have gained 10-15 per cent from their February lows, but still need to gain 80-180 per cent to reach previous high
points.
Non-performing stocksAs many as 20 of the 30 index stocks have been trading in the red since August 2018 low, show data
Auto stocks Tata Motors, MM, Maruti Suzuki and Hero MotoCorp are down 31 per cent, 29 per cent, 24 per cent and 15 per cent from the point
Sensex hit its high point last August
They are down 30-70 per cent from their respective record high levels
Prabhakar says the auto segment may not perform well for some time due to production cuts.
Metals mining stocks Vedanta and Coal India are
down 23 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively
ITC and HUL have also failed to contribute to the recovery and are down 7 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively
YES Bank has been the worst index performer
