INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
the central bank to deliver its second rate cut of 2019.
With crude at a five-month high, many investors are turning less confident about
bias.
The low headline print gave Governor Shaktikanta Das and the rate-setting panel the space to cut rates by 25 basis points each in
February and April to support the economy
Data on Friday showed headline inflation quickened to a five-month high of 2.86 percent in March from 2.57 percent in February.
The RBI last
week cut its inflation forecast to a range of 2.9 percent to 3 percent in the April-September period, compared with a February projection of
3.2 percent to 3.4 percent, while seeing price growth this year within its 4 percent medium-term target
economist with Crisil Ltd
prices being pushed up further should the United States -China trade tensions be resolved swiftly
The two sides are nearing a trade deal, with talks aimed at clinching one within the next month continuing.
A recent study by the central
bank showed a $10 rise from $65 a barrel will lead to a 49 basis points increase in headline inflation, while a similar increase from $55 a
currency on imported inflation
The rupee climbed 2.3 percent against the dollar in March, making it the best performer in Asia
The currency is up more than 7 percent from its October low, leading to a view among economists like Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd
Economist Upasna Bhardwaj that some of the impact from the rising currency could help ease inflation.
A 2018 working paper, co-authored by
Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Patra, showed that a 1 percent change in the exchange rate translates into a 15 basis-point move in
said Gaurav Kapur, chief economist at IndusInd Bank Ltd
