INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Benchmark equity indices got off to a strong start on Monday, rallying over 2 per cent after exit poll projected a clear majority
for the BJP-led NDA in the general elections
History suggests exit polls have often been wide off the mark, but analysts say the buffer between projected seats and the magical halfway
mark of 272 is heartening.
Here are the key takeaways:BJP can outdo poll estimates: On an average, exit polls predict 304 seats for the NDA,
down from 336 seats in 2014, but comfortably above the simple majority mark of 272
Oswal Securities said the BJP traditionally dominates in North, West and Central India
But now it is gaining foothold down East
Rajasthan, UP, MP, Bihar, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Maharashtra, the latest poll suggests otherwise
these states and wrest seats from BJP
Securities said.
Eyes on next level reforms: Kotak Institutional Equities said the next government would have to implement certain reforms
The central government may want to focus on reforms in factors of production including labour and land and the role of government in
business including privatization of PSUs and review of extant ownership and pricing policies to encourage greater FDI and private investment
The brokerage, however, feels that these reforms may not be easy to implement politically.
India may relatively fare well on economic front:
Swaminathan Aiyar, Consulting Editor, ETNow, said he would not be surprised if global growth and domestic economic growth is worse in NDA-II
than it was during NDA-1 due to global factors
Even with the slowdown India may continue to be the fastest growing major economy
For May 23, Mehta noted that 30 countries have gone to poll in last three years, at the most the poll days have seen 2.9 per cent move,
minimum just 0.1 per cent
The index should oscillate between 11,700 and 10,800 till the Union Budget
For traders, any rise could be an opportunity to sell
Global factors will overrule once the coming week is over
On Monday, VIX eased 18 per cent to 22.92
Hold your horses: Historically exit polls have been notorious for getting projections wide off the mark, and one must take them with a
pinch of salt, analysts warned
In 2004, exit polls had wrongly forecast a repeat victory for the BJP-led NDA coalition, while in 2009, they meaningfully underestimated the