INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
This week, NBFCs dominated the market, recording one the highest turnovers on the exchanges
Rumours and conjectures were overshadowing stocks such as Indiabulls Housing Finance, DHFL and also banks like Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank,
which is a sign that the pain is nearing an end
Sectorally, the market is divergent and chaotic and no single inference can be drawn upon
FMCG is in a sideways to consolidation phase, pharma is in a downtrend but bottoming out, IT is into a topping process, metals are bottoming
out and oil - gas and realty are in an uptrend but are correcting
Above all, midcaps and small caps are still under pressure
Such a divergent behaviour signals one thing that the market is unwilling to move either way
Nifty could test the gap created by the election day results in the worst-case scenario, which could be a good starting point for the bulls
Energy-based commodities are experiencing continuous selling pressure
Crude and natural gas, hopefully, have begun a major multi-year downtrend, which can even halve crude oil prices
That being the case, equity bulls will rejoice worldwide and India will not be far behind.
Event of the Week Auto giant Tata Motors reported
a massive decline of 23% in global sales, Indian passenger vehicles and two-wheeler makers are reducing production in double digits and
inventories are at record high levels
Despite these moves, stock prices are refusing to go down, which indicates that the stock prices have already factored in the weakness in
Therefore, very little room is left for downside for the time being
Technical Outlook Nifty50 is moving lower steadily, after making failed attempts to rise intermittently during the week
Volumes and volatility were low throughout the week, indicating that this is only a corrective fall and not the beginning of a bear market
The gap of past month is the most likely support area
The 11,650 -11,450 range is a good support area for the market to find its feet
The current fall may not offer shorting opportunities, but traders should be watchful for any buying setups at lower levels.
Expectations
the global investor community and, in turn, in markets
Growth is the backbone of any investment and a weak commentary on growth although a positive for interest rates to come down further would
be bad for global markets, which are mainly riding on growth expectations
Investors are going around in circles trying to figure out a strategy to play this lacklustre market
Buy on dips should be the strategy in the FMCG and good quality private sector retail-focused banks
Nifty50 ended the weak at 11823, down 0.4 per cent.
