INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
With less than two weeks before Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the full-year Union Budget in Parliament on July 5, economists
eagerly await any announcements to kick-start growth in the economy
Latest official data till the quarter and year ended March 31 highlights a slowdown in the economy, placing India behind China in terms of
fastest growing major economies - viewed by many economists as one of the major challenges before the NDA government's second term
While economists don't expect any significant changes in parameters such as the GDP growth estimate in the upcoming budget, some see the
fiscal deficit target being further revised to 3.5 per cent from 3.4 per cent at present.Economists have laid out a host of challenges
facing the economy: weak consumption and increasing unemployment
The challenges facing the economy cannot be addressed in a year or two but will require sustained effort, they say.( Key economic challenges
facing the economy)Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, told TheIndianSubcontinent in an emailed response that he expects no
major changes in the numbers and a revision in the fiscal deficit target was "very unlikely"
He further said the fiscal deficit target is expected to be retained at 3.4 per cent, or revised to 3.5 per cent at most."I do not expect
any significant measures in the budget
It will be more a case of reviewing revenue and expenditure so far and planning for the next nine months," Mr Sabnavis added.The government
is likely to overshoot the fiscal deficit target previously set for the current fiscal year, news agency Reuters reported last week quoting
three officials, as a slowing economy creates a big shortfall in tax collections and prompts new stimulus plans.In its interim Budget 2019,
fiscal deficit to 3.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), from 4.5 per cent in 2013-14, big ticket programmes such as a Rs
75,000-crore farmer's income scheme have stretched the expenditure, which along with shrinking tax collections have led to widening of
fiscal deficit."For a credible budget, the government will likely need to re-estimate the tax and expenditure targets given the tax
shortfall in FY2019," said Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist, Kotak Institutional Equities, who expects the fiscal deficit target to be
retained at 3.4 per cent."There is no other option but to defer the fiscal consolidation target as boosting economic growth and reviving
private investment is our top priority," Reuters quoted a senior finance ministry official involved in the budget discussions as saying
That may well mean raising the fiscal deficit target to as much as 3.6 per cent of GDP from an already upwardly revised target of 3.4 per
cent, he said.India's GDP or gross domestic product grew 5.8 per cent in the January-March period, and 6.8 per cent in the financial year
2018-19, according to official data released in May.Asked about his views on GDP growth, Mr Sabnavis said: "It does look like that growth
But the movement upwards will be gradual and monsoon-dependent."The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its bi-monthly policy review earlier
this month, lowered its GDP growth projection for the current financial year to 7.0 per cent (6.4-6.7 per cent in the first half and 7.2-7.5
per cent in the second half) from 7.2 per cent.Credit ratings major Fitch lowered its growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal
It, however, retained its GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal (2020-21) at 7.1 per cent and 7.0 per cent for 2021-22."GDP growth is
somewhere near the trough but does not necessarily imply a sharp revival soon
There are no quick fixes for reviving the aggregate demand in the economy," said Kotak Institutional Equities' Mr Rakshit.He also said the
budget can be utilized to provide some boost to two segments that have seen continued strains: real estate and SMEs (small and medium-sized
enterprises)."There could be some indication however on new measures for the next year on taxation," Mr Sabnavis added.
