INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
expectations of stimulus measures from the full-Budget 2019-20 will keep the domestic equity markets subdued, say experts.Conversely, India
Inc expects some solid measures and policies from the Budget to rejuvenate the sagging economy besides creating jobs
However, such a move is highly unlikely given fiscal constraints."Addressing the rural concern and boosting consumer demand should be
government's top priority among others," said SMC Investments and Advisors Chairman and Managing Director DK Aggarwal."Budgetary support
in sectors such as infrastructure, banks, NBFCs, oil and gas, power, steel, automobile will cheer market participants."Historically,
announcements on capital expenditure, along with policy reforms from the the Union Budget have determined the markets' trajectory."There is
limited scope in budget for any big fiscal measures to excite the markets
Further, expectation from Q1FY20 is likely to be moderately positive led by base impact from banks and pharma," Geojit Financial Services
Head of Research Vinod Nair, told IANS."The risk is that, given slowdown in the economy, the expectation seems very high for FY20 and
downgrade in earning is also possible
Consolidation might get extended given global factors, evolving Indo-US trade, Visa spat and weak domestic macros."The NDA will present its
first full-Budget after decisively winning a second term
The Economic Survey 2018-19 will be tabled in the Parliament on July 4, followed by the Union Budget on July 5."Equity markets have been in
a consolidation phase ahead of the upcoming Union Budget," said Sahil Kapoor, chief market Strategist, Edelweiss Investor Research."In the
short term the markets will take cues from outcome of US China trade talks and announcement in the Budget
The longer term trend continues to be bullish
We expect current consolidation to be succeeded by a strong rally."Besides the Budget, market participants will monitor the monthly
automobile sales data along with production figures for eight core industries (ECI) in June and the direction of foreign fund flows to gauge
economic performance.Similarly, factors such as the upcoming Q3 corporate earning results season from July 12 and rupee's movement against
the US dollar will other major themes for the week.The home currency had strengthened by 53 paise during the week ended June 28, to close at
Rs 69.02 against the US dollar from its last week's close at Rs 69.55."A RBI intervention and bad fiscal news can only stop further
The 68.80 level still remains critical to be tested before further appreciation in rupee," said Sajal Gupta, head, forex and rates,
Edelweiss Securities."Next week range at 68.70 to 69.40."On technical charts, the NSE Nifty50 might enter a uptrend, if the immediate
resistance of 11,911 points is crossed."Further downsides are however likely once the immediate support of 11,758 is broken," said Deepak
Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities.Get Breaking news, live coverage, and Latest News from India and around the world on
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