INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Monsoon rains are likely to be 97 percent of their long-term average in 2018, the meteorological department said on Monday, reassuring
farmers ahead of summer planting.What are the categories of monsoonA normal, or average, monsoon means rainfall between 96 and 104 percent
of 89 cm, which is a 50-year average rainfall in four months starting in June.The classification by the India Meteorological Department,
2014 and 2015 -- there were consecutive droughts, that led to some criticism of the government's handling of the issue.Rainfall above 110
percent of the average means an excessive monsoon, which is not as damaging as a drought, but could be potentially harmful for the yields of
certain crops.The monsoon season starts with rains on the southern Kerala coast around June 1, covering the whole country by the middle of
such as rice, wheat, sugarcane and oilseeds such as soybeans
The farm sector accounts for about 15 percent of India's $2 trillion economy, but employs more than half of the country's 1.3 billion
people.If monsoon rains lift farm output, it can boost demand for consumer goods as it raises incomes of rural people.A stronger economic
outlook would lift equities, mainly for companies selling products in rural areas, including consumer goods, automobiles, fertilisers and
wheat, but a drought would require the country to import food
In 2009, India imported sugar after poor rains, sending global prices to record highs and pushing up local inflation.Monsoon rains replenish
reservoirs and groundwater, allowing better irrigation and more hydropower output
rains on the southern Kerala coast around June 1How does the monsoon affect inflation and central bank policyFood accounts for 50 percent of
India's consumer price index, which the central bank closely monitors while deciding on monetary policy
A bumper farm output would keep food prices under control.During past droughts, the government supported farmers by giving out incentives,
straining the fiscal deficit
A good monsoon will limit government spending on such measures.How reliable is the monsoon forecastThe IMD issues its first forecast
typically more than a month ahead of the monsoon's onset.On an average, its forecast has been accurate only once every five years over the
past two decades, even after taking into account an error band of plus or minus 5 percentage points.The IMD's forecast for the 2017 monsoon
was its most accurate since 2008
Last year, there was a difference of only 1 percentage point between the forecast and the actual rainfall
Even during normal monsoon years, some parts of India face drought, while some others suffer from floods.The IMD will come out with a second
monsoon important for Prime Minister Modi ahead of the 2019 electionsPM Modi, who has promised to double farmers' income over five years,
remains popular nearly four years into his term
Farmer unrest, however, has flared in some states ruled by the BJP, catching regional leaders flat-footed.A normal monsoon could lead to
