INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
A bomb has exploded in a wedding hall in the Afghan capital, Kabul, killing 63 people and wounding more than 180.Witnesses told the BBC a
suicide bomber detonated explosives during a wedding ceremony.The explosion happened at around 22:40 local time (18.10 GMT) in an area in
the west of the city mostly populated by Shia Muslims
The Taliban denied they were behind the attack
No other group has admitted carrying out the bombing
Sunni Muslim militants, including the Taliban and the Islamic State group, have repeatedly targeted Shia Hazara minorities in Afghanistan
and Pakistan.The Afghan interior ministry confirmed the death toll hours after the bombing
Pictures on social media showed bodies strewn across the wedding hall amid overturned chairs and tables
Afghan weddings often include hundreds of guests who gather in large halls where the men are usually segregated from the women and children
Wedding guest Mohammad Farhag said he had been in the women's section when he heard a huge explosion in the men's area
"Everyone ran outside shouting and crying," he told AFP news agency
"For about 20 minutes the hall was full of smoke
Almost everyone in the men's section is either dead or wounded
Now, two hours after the blast, they are still taking bodies out of the hall."A waiter at the hall, Sayed Agha Shah, said "everybody was
"Several of our waiters were killed or wounded," he added
A Taliban spokesman said the group "strongly condemned" the attack."There is no justification for such deliberate and brutal killings and
targeting of women and children," Zabiullah Mujaheed said in a text message to the media
The latest blast comes just 10 days after a huge bomb outside a Kabul police station killed at least 14 people and injured nearly 150
The Taliban said they carried out that attack.On Friday a brother of Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada was killed by a bomb planted in a
mosque near the Pakistani city of Quetta
No group has so far claimed that attack
A source in Afghan intelligence told the BBC that Hibatullah Akhundzada had been due to attend prayers at the mosque and was probably the
Tensions in the country have been high even though the Taliban and the US, which has thousands of troops stationed in Afghanistan, are
reportedly getting closer to announcing a peace deal.How are Afghan peace talks progressing? Taliban and US representatives have been
holding peace talks in Qatar's capital, Doha, and both sides have reported progress
On Friday, US President Donald Trump tweeted that both sides were "looking to make a deal - if possible".Just completed a very good meeting
Many on the opposite side of this 19 year war, and us, are looking to make a deal - if possible! The deal would include a phased US troop
pullout in exchange for Taliban guarantees that Afghanistan will not be used by extremist groups to attack US targets.The Taliban would also
begin negotiations with an Afghan delegation on a framework for peace including an eventual ceasefire
The militants have been refusing to negotiate with the Afghan government until a timetable for the US withdrawal is agreed upon
The Taliban now control more territory than at any point since they were forced from power in 2001.What could peace look like?The Taliban
now control more territory in Afghanistan than at any point since 2001 For the first time in 18 years, the US government seems serious about
withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan and winding up the longest war in its history
Since October, US officials and representatives of the Taliban have held seven rounds of direct talks - aimed at ensuring a safe exit for
the US in return for the insurgents guaranteeing that Afghan territory is not used by foreign militants and won't pose a security threat to
the rest of the world.A US-led military coalition drove the Taliban from power in 2001 for sheltering al-Qaeda, the militant group behind
A rare consensus about resolving the conflict peacefully, both inside and outside Afghanistan, means peace has never been so close
During a visit to Afghanistan in late June, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the Trump administration was aiming for "a peace deal
But the US-Taliban talks in Qatar's capital, Doha - as well as intra-Afghan dialogue involving the insurgents and some Afghan officials -
are only the first phase of a complicated process with an uncertain outcome - and there are many hurdles to overcome
Does there need to be a ceasefire? While the US has reversed its refusal to talk directly to the Taliban, intense fighting and unprecedented
numbers of airstrikes by the US and Afghan militaries are still going on all over the country
And while the Taliban negotiate they now control and influence more territory than at any point since 2001.The war in Afghanistan is now the
deadliest conflict in the world, causing more casualties than the fighting in Syria, Libya or Yemen
Patterns of violence have changed dramatically in recent years
The vast majority of those being killed and injured now are Afghans - civilians, police and soldiers, and Taliban fighters
In January, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said more than 45,000 members of the country's security forces had been killed since he became
Over the same period "the number of international casualties is less than 72", he said.In February, the UN said civilian deaths reached a
It said more than 32,000 civilians had in total been killed in the past decade
Taliban fighters are also regularly killed in large numbers in airstrikes, night raids and ground fighting
Given the continued stalemate with the insurgents, US President Donald Trump is keen to end the war, which, according to US officials, costs
about $45bn (£34bn) annually
His indication to withdraw most or all of his 14,000 forces in the near future caught everyone by surprise, including the Taliban
There are also nearly 1,000 British troops in Afghanistan as part of Nato's mission to train and assist the Afghan security
forcesPresident Trump is considering withdrawing many of the US troops still in Afghanistan But even if the US and the Taliban resolve their
major issues, the Afghans themselves will need to sort out a number of key internal issues - including a ceasefire, dialogue between the
Taliban and the government, and most importantly, the formation of a new government and political system.Ideally, a ceasefire would precede
presidential elections later this year and the Taliban would take part - but the latter seems unlikely
Without a full or even partial ceasefire, there are fears that poll irregularities and a possible protracted political turmoil over the
results could undermine any peace process and may increase political instability.Can power be shared, and if so how? There are a number of
options and scenarios.First of all, a decision will need to be taken by all major players on whether presidential elections, already
postponed to late September, take place as planned
Can Taliban and Afghan leaders share peace? Who are the Taliban? The Afghan women determined not to lose out in Taliban talks Will
negotiations lead to peace in Afghanistan?If they do, a new government in Kabul could negotiate terms with the Taliban, unless a peace deal
had been reached before the vote
Whether that government served a full term or held power on an interim basis while intra-Afghan power-sharing options were discussed is
But elections could also be further delayed or suspended - and the current government's term extended - while a mutually agreed mechanism
to establish a new government, acceptable to all sides including the Taliban, is sought.Will the Taliban end up back in government? eating a
temporary neutral government or a governing coalition, that could even include the Taliban, is another option being looked at in this
A loya jirga - or grand assembly - of Afghans could also be called to choose an interim government which would hold elections once US troops
have left and the Taliban has been reintegrated
An international conference similar to the one in Bonn, Germany, in 2001 is another suggestion to help chart a future course for the
country.It would include Afghan players, major powers and neighbouring states - but this time also with the participation of the
Taliban.Several Taliban leaders have told me they need time to enter mainstream Afghan society and prepare for elections.
Would former
enemies be able to work together?There will be very difficult issues to surmount after a conflict that has left hundreds of thousands of
casualties on all sides, including government forces, insurgents and civilians.
For example, the Taliban do not accept the current
constitution and see the Afghan government as "a US-imposed puppet regime".
So far President Ghani's administration has not been involved
in direct talks with the insurgents who refuse to talk to a government they don't recognise.
Image copyrightREUTERSImage captionThe Taliban
have dismissed the government of Ashraf Ghani as a puppet of the USTherefore, given the internal rivalries and diverse agendas of various
local actors, the intra-Afghan phase of the peace process might prove more difficult than the US-Taliban talks.
However, there are positive
signs.
Two rounds of intra-Afghan dialogue took place in Moscow earlier this year when Afghan politicians including ex-president Hamid
Karzai, former commanders and civil society members, including women, met Taliban representatives to discuss ending the war.
Why Trump's
Afghan comments are bad historyWhat a private security companies doing in Afghanistan?How do the Taliban make money?World Powers Jostle in
Afghanistan's New 'Great Game'A third such meeting took place in Doha in July, in which several officials currently serving in the Afghan
government also participated, albeit in a "personal capacity"
It is hoped that such meetings will eventually pave the way for formal peace talks between the Taliban and other Afghans, including the
government.
A number of Afghans fear that sharing power with the Taliban could see a return to the group's obscurantist interpretation of
They are concerned that various freedoms, notably certain women's rights, could be lost.
The Taliban banned women from public life when
they were in power in the 1990s, and their punishments included public stoning and amputations.
What if talks don't lead to peace?Since the
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, there has been a long list of unfulfilled agreements and failed attempts aimed at ending the war in
the country.
Media captionAt least 45,000 Afghan police and soldiers have died over the past four yearsSeveral scenarios from the past
could be repeated this time round.
A US pullout, with or without a peace deal, might not automatically result in the sudden collapse of the
government in Kabul.
The war could continue and the government's survival would largely depend on financial and military assistance from
foreign allies, especially the US, and the unity and commitment of the country's political elite.
When Soviet forces withdrew in 1989,
the Moscow-backed government in Kabul lasted for three years.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThe Taliban are still openly active
in about 70% of AfghanistanBut its collapse in 1992 ushered in a bloody civil war, involving various Afghan factions supported by different
regional powers.
If issues are not handled with care now, there is a risk of a re-run of these two scenarios.
The Taliban, who emerged out
of the chaos of the civil war, captured Kabul in 1996 and ruled most of Afghanistan until the US-led invasion removed them from power in
2001.
They could try to capture the state again if a deal is not reached this time round, or one fails.
What would chaos look like?The
current peace efforts could see the Taliban participating in a new set-up in Afghanistan.
This would mean the end of fighting and the
formation of an inclusive Afghan government - a win-win for Afghans, the US and regional players.
But the alternative is dire - a probable
intensification of conflict and instability in a country strategically located in a region with a cluster of major powers including China,
Russia, India, Iran and Pakistan.
Taliban threaten 70% of Afghanistan, BBC findsWhy Afghanistan is so dangerousHow Qatar came to host the
TalibanAnother round of chaos could well result in the emergence of new violent extremist groups.
Afghans and the rest of the world would
have to deal with a possible security vacuum in which militant groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State found fertile ground.
Increased
production of drugs and the overflow of refugees would pose serious challenges not only to Afghanistan but also to the whole region and the
rest of the world.
How could it be avoided?History shows that starting negotiations and signing deals does not guarantee that conflicts
will be peacefully resolved.
These steps are only the beginning of a complicated and challenging process - implementation of what's on
paper is even more important.
The biggest challenge for Afghanistan would be the creation of verifiable enforcement mechanisms in any
post-deal scenario.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionThe Taliban have had a political office in Doha since 2013Given the history of
conflict in the country, the current opportunity could be easily squandered if the process is taken in the wrong direction by one or more of
the local or foreign actors.
Therefore, international guarantors and a framework involving the region and the key international players are
needed to co-ordinate efforts for peace and deter and prevent spoilers from sabotaging the process.
There's a rare opportunity to resolve
four decades of war - handle it with care, or risk facing the consequences.
Who is representing the Taliban?Image copyright US DEFENSE
DEPARTMENTImage captionThe "Guantanamo Five" were released by the US without being charged with any terror-related crimeThe 14-member
Taliban negotiating team also features the "Guantanamo Five" - former high-ranking officials captured after the fall of the regime and held
for nearly 13 years in the controversial US detention camp.
They were sent to Qatar in a 2014 prisoner exchange involving Bowe Bergdahl,
the US soldier captured by insurgents in 2009.
Freed Taliban five to choose war or peaceThey are (clockwise from top left in photo
above):
Mohammad Fazl - the Taliban's deputy defence minister during the US military campaign in 2001Mohammad Nabi Omari - said to have
close links to the Haqqani militant networkMullah Norullah Noori - a senior Taliban military commander and a former provincial
governorKhairullah Khairkhwa - served as a Taliban interior minister and governor of Herat, Afghanistan's third largest cityAbdul Haq
Wasiq - the Taliban's deputy head of intelligenceSher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, a senior Taliban political figure and former head of its
political office in Qatar, is leading the group's negotiating team.
In an interview with the BBC in February, he said a ceasefire would
not be agreed until all foreign forces were withdrawn from Afghanistan.
Also present in Qatar is Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's
deputy head for political affairs and one of the group's co-founders, who was released from prison in Pakistan last October after
spending nearly nine years in captivity.
