INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
forecasts.Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a retail inflation rate of 3.70 per cent for September.SAKSHI GUPTA, ASSISTANT
VICE-PRESIDENT, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM"The increase in CPI has been driven by a rise in food inflation, especially in urban areas
Our sense is that this spike is transitory.""Fuel and core inflation continues to remain low and will keep the overall CPI trajectory in
We continue to expect the RBI to lean towards pushing growth and deliver further rate cuts this year."ANAGHA DEODHAR, ECONOMIST, ICICI
SECURITIES, MUMBAI"The increase in inflation is mainly due to rising vegetable prices
Onion prices shot up during September due to supply disruption
Hence, the rise in inflation was expected.""Now, tomato prices have also started rising sharply
So, this trend could persist in October as well
If vegetable prices remain high in the coming weeks, full-year inflation could be higher than 3.65 per cent."SUVODEEP RAKSHIT, SENIOR
prices, especially urban food inflation, even as low rural food inflation keeps the overall food inflation under check.""The increase in
food prices have been due to a spurt in vegetable and pulses prices, which will most likely be transient
Core inflation continued to soften due to the impact of lower fuel prices and, to some extent, gold prices
It will likely soften further as rural health and education inflation normalize over October-December.""Overall, with the CPI inflation on
ECONOMIST, L-T FINANCIAL SERVICES, MUMBAI"While the CPI print looks higher at 3.99 per cent, it is entirely on the back of sharp spikes in
the prices of vegetables, meat and fish, and pulses.""Core inflation, which is a proxy for demand conditions has collapsed to 4.01 per cent
On a year-on-year basis, it has come off by 181 bps
WPI core has already become negative
Prices of perishables like vegetables and meat will get normalised as soon as monsoon-related transport disruption is over.""Pulses too may
not pose any risk, as conditions for Rabi pulses are highly favourable due to healthy water reserves
The RBI will pay close attention to weak IIP print and demand slowdown.""A possibility of rate-cut certainly exists, but its magnitude will
depend on how HFIs behave in Q3, FY20."GARIMA KAPOOR, ECONOMIST AND VICE-PRESIDENT, ELARA CAPITAL, MUMBAI"The recent increase in headline
CPI print has been on account of firming up of food inflation, especially in urban areas.""Arrival of Kharif harvest and prospect of a good
Rabi crop owing to comfortable water table in reservoirs means that food prices are expected to cool from November onwards, helping
inflation to trend back to RBI's (Reserve Bank of India) projected levels and providing room for the RBI to cut rates
We expect the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) to cut policy repo rate by another 50 bps until FY20-end with a 25 bps cut in December.""All
high frequency indicators of demand indicate soft demand conditions.""While a low stable inflation is generally good, there is an urgent
need for some inflation in the food economy that would help improve terms of trade of the rural economy, thereby supporting demand."Get
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