INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week.
Oil back on the boilGeopolitics is
The US killing of a top Iranian commander has doused the nascent New Year rally and delivered a $3 boost for oil prices on fears that any
violent retaliation from Tehran would disrupt energy supplies.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 have actually only risen to their highest since
mid-September, when an attack on Saudi Arabian crude facilities sparked the biggest price jump in more than 30 years
moves.
Any conflict and surging oil prices risk snuffing out the nascent global economic recovery.
For bonds, no time to dieThe ructions in
the Middle East are a reminder of how hard it will be to kill off a near four-decade-long bull market.
Global bonds had a tepid start to
2020 following a year when US and German borrowing costs posted their biggest annual falls in five years
With a resolution to the US-China trade spat in sight and recession risks receding, super-low bond yields no longer seemed justified
German 10-year government bond yields touched seven-month highs on the first trading day of the new year, while 15-year yields briefly edged
above 0% for the first time since July
For all the talk that sovereign bonds are expensive, many investors are still clearly sticking with them.
Good jobFriday brings the first US
jobs release of the decade
While it will be hard to beat the 2010s for growth and equity gains, the December 2019 figures could extend year-end bullishness and amplify
cent pace in the third quarter
Manufacturing hiring did take a hit but hopes are high for a Phase 1 trade deal on January 15
Lawmakers reconvene on Jan 7 and will debate the divorce deal Prime Minister Boris Johnson has agreed with Brussels
with one Brexit step likely taken by the end of the month, sterling could react more than last year to economic data
clarity.
The trade Wall of ChinaNearly two years of brinkmanship, stop-start negotiations and tit-for-tat tariffs could end on Jan
15, the date that President Trump says will see Beijing and Washington ink a Phase 1 trade deal
markets on edge.
In recent days, Chinese markets have basked in the afterglow of upbeat retail sales data, solid manufacturing gauges and
