INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
India is facing its worst economic slowdown in a decade
Growth fell to 4.5% in the July-September quarter
in the report.
Here is what economists and analyst read into the fine prints of the survey:
Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist
at Geojit Financial ServicesAs the lavender colour of the Economic Survey indicates, the survey is a mix of old and new
The emphasis on wealth creation and it's beneficial effects on the economy is laudable
The argument in favour of pro- business policies, the need for aggressive divestment of CPSEs, concerns on the injurious effects of freebies
and debt waivers are all pro- market views that are to be welcomed
The survey leaves little room for doubt about economic thinking
The big question is whether the budget too will reflect the same thinking.
Deepthi Mary Mathew, Economist, Geojit Financial ServicesThe
Survey highlights the difficult fiscal situation ,and possible crowding out of private investors due to the increased market borrowing by
However, the survey also stresses the need for relaxation of fiscal deficit target for the current year to stimulate growth in the economy
In this background, it is expected that the fiscal deficit target for FY21 would also settle at a higher range
It is welcoming that the survey emphasizes the need for improving the business climate that would aid the economy to achieve the target of
$5trillion."
Ranjan Chakravarty, Economist and Product Strategist, MSEThis Economic Survey is absolutely one of the best ever
The analysis is scrupulously fair, the detailed diagnosis, the cataloging of the systemic issues and the prognosis are all on point and
Subramanian for a fantastic job and endorse the short term 5% and medium-term 6.5% growth forecasts
We have ourselves forecast that recovery is coming in 2H 2020 and this Economic Survey independently verifies it.
Sreejith Balasubramanian,
Economist - Fund Management, IDFC AMCThe Economic Survey emphasises on free-market dynamics and trust, conducive policies for
entrepreneurship, labour-intensive export plan and the need to avoid crony capitalism and irrelevant government intervention
It proposes a health score for NBFC companies and a case for aggressive disinvestment, with the latter being widely expected in FY21
We expect a fiscal deficit of 3.8% of GDP in FY20 and 3.5% in FY21.
Niranjan Hiranandani, President, Assocham - NaredcoWe welcome positive
outlook of Economic Survey, which projected 6-6.5% economic growth in the next financial year
However, we strongly advocate that the government needs to announce bolder policy and fiscal measures to recover from a sharp economic
downturn and somnolent market scenario
The Survey highlighted the need to relax fiscal slippage in terms of prudent spending with a primary objective to bounce back from economic
build for nullifying the economic gaps
Proactive measures should be undertaken to push India amongst the top 50 nations in the global pecking order of Ease of doing business
importance of reforms in achieving the $5 trillion GDP target
The expectation is that economic recovery will start H2FY20 onwards, marking the start of a 12-quarter business cycle
The recent reforms such as public sector bank mergers, enactment of the IBC along with GST led formalisation have seen off the initial
challenges and are expected to fuel the recovery going forward
The need for augmenting fixed investments by households along with public and private sector has also been pointed out
It rightly advises a guard against inflationary tendencies, but an accommodative monetary policy is advised, nonetheless
Overall, the economic survey maintains a cautious optimism and pegs FY21 GDP growth at 6-6.5%.