INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW YORK: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders may be surging in the polls ahead of Super Tuesday, but some on Wall Street have made their own
conclusions on what November will bring: four more years of President Donald Trump.
Ninety-five percent of participants in a Deutsche Bank
which show any Democrat beating Trump in a presidential contest, although top contenders have a bigger lead
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted Feb
19-25, showed Sanders with a seven percentage-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup.
The sharp mismatch in
expectations could stoke market volatility if Wall Streeters are wrong and a Democrat emerges victorious - especially if that winner is
Sanders, whose promises to break up big banks, take on drug companies and essentially abolish private insurance in favor of a single
government-run plan have unnerved some investors
strategist at Federated Investors, in New York
Street.
Investors will be looking ahead to next Tuesday, when 14 states will cast ballots and Sanders could build an overwhelming advantage
fallout from the spreading coronavirus outbreak, with the number of cases beyond China accelerating rapidly
US stocks were extending the week's losses on Friday and were on track for a 7th day in the red after the S-P 500 .SPX on Thursday
manager focused on healthcare at Fred Alger Management in New York.
ReutersThe effects on the broader market of a big Sanders win on Tuesday
cent for former Vice President Joe Biden and 45 per cent for former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Gary Bradshaw, portfolio manager at
Hodges Capital Management in Dallas, Texas, has kept most of his attention on the coronavirus outbreak in recent days and is not eager to
said.
Still, some investors believe the election can fuel market swings this year.
Volume on the October futures contract VXc8 for the Cboe
Volatility Index hit 16,247 between Jan
21, according to Cboe Global Markets (CBOE.Z)
That dwarfs the 471 contracts that traded in 2016 from Jan
VIX futures reflect expectations for volatility in the month following their expiration.
On Thursday, October VIX futures traded at 22.5,
versus 19.57 for September futures VXc7 and 20.22 for November futures VXc9, indicating heightened expectations for volatility near election
day.
Cboe Global Markets listed October VIX futures a month earlier than usual in response to customers eager to place bets on
The exchange also listed September and November futures ahead of their usual schedule.
Bill Northey, senior investment director at US Bank
