INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Retail inflation fell marginally in AugustAnnual retail inflation eased to 5.30 per cent in August from 5.59 per cent the previous month,
government data released on Monday showed.Analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted annual inflation at 5.60 per cent.Sakshi Gupta, Senior
Economist, HDFC Bank, Gurugram"Inflation surprised on the downside in August compared to consensus expectations
The softness was led by lower food inflation, especially in cereals, sugar and vegetable categories
Core inflation also dropped below 6 per cent after remaining elevated for the last few months
Fuel inflation continued to play spoilsport at almost 13 per cent in the month."Inflation readings could remain contained for the next 2-3
months, in part supported by a high base, before inching up to 6 per cent from December onwards
For now, the sub-6 per cent print for a second consecutive month is likely to take the pressure off the RBI to normalise liquidity just
yet."We expect the central bank to start discussing any liquidity rollback only by the beginning of 2022."Sreejith Balasubramanian,
Economist - Fund Management, IDFC AMC, Mumbai"With the August print of 5.3 per cent, CPI (consumer price index)inflation has moved further
down from its peak of 6.3 per cent in May and June, aided by softer prices of food and beverages and base effects
Core inflation remains elevated at 5.8 per cent y/y in August and an average of 5.9 per cent FYTD (financial year to date), but signs of a
sustainable demand recovery apart from supply-side factors continue to remain important."The extent of manifestation of sequentially softer
cereal and vegetable prices (based on available real-time data so far in September) in official CPI, sectoral supply adjustments, commodity
prices, services inflation, etc
will be crucial ahead."Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist, Kotak Institutional Equities, Mumbai"CPI inflation at 5.3 per cent in August is
in line with expectations and should be seen positively by the RBI (Reserve Bank of India)
Core inflation has also softened from last month."We expect the RBI MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) to remain focused on growth as
inflationary concerns remain under check."Upasna Bhardwaj, Senior Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mumbai"The headline inflation came in
softer than our expectations largely led by downward surprise of food prices
We expect the subsequent readings to remain fairly benign and much lower than RBI's estimates."The softer inflation would provide relief to
the policy makers and more room to move much slowly in terms of policy normalisation
We continue to expect only tweaks to liquidity tools to manage temporary liquidity surplus in the near term."
