INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
India will see economic growth of 8 to 8.5% in the coming fiscal year, the annual Survey predictedNew Delhi: Finance Minister Nirmala
Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2021-2022 in Parliament today
India will see economic growth of 8 to 8.5 per cent in the coming fiscal year, down from 9.2 per cent growth estimated in the current year,
the annual Survey predicted a day before the Budget.Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in the first
quarter was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, the
survey notes.Prannoy Roy and experts decode the annual Survey.Get TheIndianSubcontinent UpdatesTurn on notifications to receive alerts as
We really need to push Atmanirbharta
Fundamental trust in investors is needed
Indians think we have a big market and investors will come here
But the consumption market is small
So we need to have prices that are globally competitive: Dr Arvind Subramanian There is a historic opportunity for India today
After the global financial crisis, China became uncompetitive
Now is the 2nd opportunity - investors are fleeing China for geopolitical reasons and places like Vietnam because of its zero-Covid policy
So there is a historic opportunity: Dr Arvind Subramanian The slowdown has one big scar
MNREGA demand today is 40-50% more than pre-pandemic levels
That has in a sense left a deep scar in terms of the jobs crisis
The digital infra has improved
Recently, we have had exports that we should acknowledge
The privatisation of Air India is a big signature achievement: Dr Arvind Subramanian India has been maybe a little more affected than
elsewhere by the pandemic
Even leading up to the pandemic, the economy was weak: Dr Arvind Subramanian During the UPA, it was called disinvestment
The political composition of UPA didn't approve of the word "privatisation"
It doesn't happen because the bureaucrats who have to do it are afraid that they have to sell at a lesser price: Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia
The Economic Survey says 8-8.5% growth next year
But the question is whether 8.5% is likely? in the first half, the economy grew 13%
Therefore, in the second half, they are projecting less than a five percent growth mark
How do we take it up to 8-8.5%?: Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia It is a difficult situation facing most countries
The economic survey is out
The growth prediction is high
9.2% GDP growth prediction is based on data from the first half of the year: Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia Congress has not been as good as we
Today, half of India's agriculture is irrigated
Just increasing irrigatioon cover is not enough
We need to learn to use water for irrigation
We need to increase investment in irrigation
We gace four times the buffer food stock we need: Dr Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist We need to get jobs back
Jobs must come back to the services sector and the MSME sector: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw There is a virtous cycle in the formal sector and
viscious cycle in informal sector
People in the formal sector have held on to their jobs
But that is not the case in informal setor
We need a massive boost in jobs in the informal sector: Dr Samiran Chakraborty Economic activities back to pre-pandemic levels but not in
proportion to the population: Sajjid Chinoy We have to open up the economy and take courage and confidence in the fact that vaccines are
The MSME and services sector must open up
We need to open up the markets
We are long past vaccine adequacy
We need to open up vaccine export
Else, we won't see the economic recovery we want to: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw We have to focus on this strata of society
Can we look at minimum income of people who have plunged into poverty? Divestment must happen
We need to look at fiscal reforms - we are doing it too slow
We are so underinvested in R-D that we can't look at growth: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw The tax to GDP ratio must be high
Our ratio is very very low
But who will pay for it? Two years from now, you won't have a tight budget because it is an election year
Next year will be a year that is close to the elections
So it will again be a tight budget
So, where will the corrections come in?: Economist Dr Omkar Goswami 2021 was the year of policy reinforcement
2022 must be the year the fiscal policy becomes supportive
We need a budget that focuses on growth
The most important thing is to spend on public investment and infrastructure
We saw 21% growth in infra spending
We need more of this: Sajjid Chinoy, Chief Economist, JP Morgan Any type of fiscal measure must deal with the supply side
Budget deficit vs inflation is a false dilemma: Junaid Ahmad, World Bank India, Country Director 80% expenditure on pre-committed items
Flexibility on budget is on 20% of expenditure
The flexibility falls down to what one can achieve through disinvestments
The picture for this year is not as gloomy as you are painting it to be: Dr Samiran Chakraborty, Chief Economist, CITI Group The way we have
failed says two things: government speaks of disinvestments, but they don't and nobody in the government wants it
Npobody thinks that the government wants privatisations
There's lot of talk but no belief: Economist Dr Omkar GoswamiNeed To Put More Disposable Income In Hands Of People To Boost Demand: Kiran
Mazumdar ShawWe need to double up per capita income
We need to put more disposable income in the hands of poeple to boost demand
There is a huge economic strain
We need to look at the bond market and other fiscal measures.We are doing a lot but not doing enough
Pandemic has shown that we can we things in a smart way
We are sitting on huge amount of data
But we are not really connecting the dots to give us insights into the data
We need to have a sensible approach: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw We require more investments by big companies and formalisation of the economy to
We need the investments to come in fast: Mahesh Vyas
MD - CEO, CMIE Services like travel, tourism, restaurant, parlours suffered more
The fear factor stopped people from stepping out
The only way out is to get vaccinated
The major reason for the slowdown was the capex slowdown since 2011-12
We need reforms - in tax, capital control - to get businesses up: Economist Dr Ila PatnaikFrontline Workers Essential In Getting Children
Back To Schools: World Bank India Country Director20-24 per cent children will not come back to schools post-pandemic, particularly girls
We are seeing it in Latin America, Africa, South Asia
The frontline is extremely important - aanganwadis, Asha workers - in getting the students back to schools
We need to chase the virus
Southeast Asia need a regional surveillance system that can anticipate the disease: Junaid Ahmad, World Bank India, Country Director The
newly appointed Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said that while preparing the economic survey for 2021-22, the government has
kept in mind medium term stability, supply side reforms as well as process reforms.Atmanirbhar Bharat Initiative A Response To Global Supply
Chain Disruptions: Sanjeev Sanyal"The post-Covid world will be influenced by geopolitics, climate change and supply chain
All these factors will impact our economy," Sanjeev Sanyal said, adding that the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative is the response to global
supply chain disruptions.Tourism Sector Remain Impacted By Pandemic: Sanjeev SanyalSectors like financial, real estate and professional
services have seen growth and gone back to the pre-pandemic levels
But sectors which are contact-intensive like travel and tourism continue to be impacted, Sanjeev Sanyal said.Shape Of Economic Recovery A
"Tilted W": Principal Economic Adviser Sanjeev Sanyal The shape of economic recovery can best be described as a "tilted W", he said, which
is what the best minds in the country could come up with
During the pandemic, the domestic industry sector witnessed erratic upward and downward movement, contractions as well as revivals and this
led to the economic recovery resembling a "tilted W".Agriculture Least Affected By Lockdowns, Says Principal Economic Adviser Sanjeev Sanyal
The agriculture sector was the least affected by pandemic-induced lockdowns and is expected to have a growth rate of 4 per cent during the
current fiscal, principal economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said.Economic Activities Reviving To Pre-Pandemic Levels: Sanjeev SanyalThe
overall scenario, as envisaged in the economic survey, portrays revival of economic activity to pre-pandemic levels, principal economic
adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said today."There has been a revival of economic activity to pre-pandemic levels, as can be seen by many indicators
like e-way bills collections, which have shown growth after having slumped during the second wave in the first quarter of the current
fiscal," Mr Sanyal said.Refined Core Inflation Much Below Conventional Core Inflation: Economic SurveyThe economic survey has made a
pertinent observation by noting that refined core inflation, which was 5.9 per cent during April-December period of 2021, has been actually
lower than the conventional core inflation."Since June 2020, refined core inflation has been much below the conventional core inflation,
indicating the impact of inflation in fuel items in the conventional core inflation measure," the survey said.
