INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Oil has surged along with a broader rally in commodity prices thats also swept up natural gas.Oil's surge to $100 a barrel for the first
time since 2014 represents a double-blow to the world economy by further denting growth prospects and driving up inflation.That's a
worrying combination for the United States Federal Reserve and fellow central banks as they seek to contain the strongest price pressures
Ukraine crisis sparked fears of a disruption to the region's critical energy exports.While energy exporters stand to benefit from the boom
and oil's influence on economies isn't what it once was, much of the world will take a hit as companies and consumers find their bills
warns a run-up to $150 a barrel would almost stall the global expansion and send inflation spiraling to over 7%, more than three times the
rate targeted by most monetary policy makers.Oil has surged along with a broader rally in commodity prices that's also swept up natural
Among the drivers: A post-lockdown resurgence in worldwide demand coupled with the geopolitical tensions and strained supply chains
Prospects for a renewed Iranian nuclear deal have at times cooled the market.Still, the rise has been piercing
80% of the global economy's energy
And the cost of a typical basket of them is now up more than 50% from a year ago, according to Gavekal Research Ltd., a consultancy.The
energy crunch also compounds the ongoing squeeze in global supply chains, which drove up costs and delayed deliveries of raw materials and
finished goods.The International Monetary Fund recently raised its forecast for global consumer prices to an average 3.9% in advanced
economies this year, up from 2.3%, and 5.9% in emerging and developing nations.China, the world's biggest oil importer and goods exporter,
has so far enjoyed benign inflation
But its economy remains vulnerable as producers are already juggling high input costs and concerns over energy shortages.With price
pressures proving more tenacious than earlier expected, central bankers are now prioritizing inflation-fighting over demand support
United States consumer prices surprising to a four-decade high sent shocks through the system, increasing bets that at one point had
Bailey has partly justified the decision to raise U.K
previous decades, especially the 1970s, and alternative energy offers some buffer
Other pandemic-era insulators include swelling household savings and higher wages amid a tight labor market.In the United States , the
emergence of the shale oil industry means its economy is less vulnerable to fuel shocks: While consumers are paying more for gasoline,
oil's surge, Bloomberg Economics estimates Saudi Arabia can look forward to a windfall, Russia gains, while smaller oil exporters like the
United Arab Emirates fare better too
The biggest losers would be energy importers such as Korea, India and Japan.Paul Donovan, UBS Group AG chief economist at global wealth
management, said it's important to consider how oil-producing economies spend their extra revenue, which could ultimately help global
clients.For most consumers, and central bankers, much rides on how fast and how far energy goes, particularly if economies lose momentum
high inflation backdrop and concerns about anchored inflation expectations means policy would still be tighter than if inflation were
