INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Indian economy poised for recovery, but high crude prices a worry, says CEAKolkata: The Indian economy is now poised for recovery, but the
high crude oil price is a cause for concern, said Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, on Thursday.The banking sector in the
country is stable, capital is available, and credit offtake is poised to take off, he said at a webinar organised by the Bharat Chamber of
Commerce."We are not unique to the phenomenon of uncertain growth and high inflation due to the pandemic
Developed countries are also facing the same problem," he said.The budget for 2022-23 has been made, keeping in mind that crude oil will be
But due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of Texas crude is now USD 96 per barrel
"Its impact on the Indian economy will depend on how long this high price will remain," Nageswaran said.According to him, inflation and
purchasing power is global problem
This has been due to the rise in shipping costs, high container costs and high oil prices.In India, inflation rates are hovering around 5.2
"But, I feel it should remain within four to six per cent in the next fiscal which the RBI is targeting," he said.The CEA said the market
has begun to correct in India
"Activity levels in some industries have crossed the pre-pandemic levels
But the services sector is yet to recover".Regarding the private sector investment scenario, he said it is yet to pick up due to the
pandemic cloud, which is still there
It will pick up when consumption levels increase."But the capital expenditure plan in the budget is higher in 2022-23
This has been done to fill in the void
Capital expenditure by the states has also increased," Nageswaran said.He said it is a demand-driven programme on lower allocation towards
"It has been done hoping that economy will recover and the demand for MNREGA funds will drop
But if there is demand for the programme, funds will be provided for it".According to the CEA, there are buffers in the budget
"I expect recovery to start from the second half of next fiscal
The nominal GDP growth has been targeted at 11 per cent
