INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
There has been much talk lately of opposition parties uniting to face the BJP juggernaut in the next Lok Sabha elections
It stands to reason that they should do so since there is no other way of unseating the present government
Together, they have a reasonable chance of putting up a better fight
But a cacophony of voices from the opposition camp is creating confusion
Some leaders are of the view that no alliance is possible before the elections and whatever has to happen will happen only after the Lok
Sabha polls; some are suggesting that regional parties should come together and form a federal front without the Congress party
Still others are suggesting that there should be a Grand Alliance or Maha-gathbandhan of all parties, including the Congress, in opposition
to the NDA, and there must be only one candidate from the opposition against the BJP/NDA candidate in the next election
These views, in a way, represent the totality of options available.Of all the alternatives on the table, the first is not much of an option
It will produce results in favour of the opposition only if there is such extreme degree of popular anger that the people will themselves
choose to throw out the present regime without caring for who wins and forms the next government
This is a highly unlikely scenario
If the NDA has to be unseated, then opposition parties will have to do better than just depend on luck.The second option is for all the
parties including the Congress to come together and form a pre-poll Maha-gathbandhan to face the NDA
This is the ideal option even if it is without a declared candidate for the Prime Minister's post
The BJP will try its best to make the elections presidential and pose the question "Modi vs who" The opposition should not fall in this trap
Modi should not be the issue in the next election; issues should be the issue, of which there are plenty
The opposition must have an alternative program; mererly criticizing the present regime without offering an alternative agenda is unlikely
Thus, while a leader is not a must, an alternative agenda is a must for such an alliance.The third option is for regional parties to come
together and form some kind of a federal front
They may accommodate other parties including the Congress in their alliance on the basis of their regional needs
The federal front, however, would also need to have an agenda of governance.Technically, there is a fourth option also
This consists of leaving the question of alliances to the dominant party or parties in each state
Even this is a better option than doing nothing at all
In a way, this has already happened in five major states: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which together account
In the 2014, the BJP had won 145 Lok Sabha seats in these states
In the recent by-elections, an alliance has already emerged in UP consisting of the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Samajwadi Party and the
These parties have contested the recent Lok Sabha and assembly by-elections together with stunning results
The Congress party however is not yet a part of this combination
In Bihar, the RJD and the Congress have already formed an alliance, again with impressive results in the assembly and the Lok Sabha
by-elections held in recent months
In Jharkhand, opposition parties including the Congress have also come together and contested the recent assembly by-polls together with
100% results in their favour
Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress and the JD(S) have formed an alliance and are in government together
If these alliances hold together during the Lok Sabha polls, the results will be very different from the 2014 elections, and if the trends
in the by-elections are any indication, the BJP may end up with massive losses.In the second category, I would put those states where the
BJP and the Congress are in a straight contest
These states are Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana,Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh
These states account for 110 Lok Sabha seats
In the 2014 election, the BJP had won an impressive number of 104 seats in these states
In Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Gujarat, the BJP score was 100 percent
It is unlikely that this performance will be repeated in the next election
In the third category are those states where there is a strong presence of some other parties like the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and Punjab
and the All Assam Students Union (AASU) and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in Assam
These three states account for 34 Lok Sabha seats of which the BJP had won 16 seats including all seven seats in Delhi.There is no
indication yet that these parties will form an alliance with the Congress in these states for the Lok Sabha elections.Then we have the
fourth category where regional parties rule the roost like the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the Biju Janta Dal in Orissa, the Telugu
Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, the TRS in Telangana, the DMK in Tamil Nadu and Left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front led by
These states together have 164 Lok Sabha seats of which the BJP had won only eight seats in the last Lok Sabha elections
The BJP has indeed improved its position in some of these states but it is unlikely that it will improve its tally significantly in the next
But the regional parties will have to be careful.The broad picture which emerges from the above analysis therefore, is that in the first
five states, the opposition parties have already come together to take on the BJP
In the second category of states, where the BJP and Congress are pitted against each other, it is entirely on the Congress to hold back the
The results of the by-elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have been encouraging, but much will depend on the results of the
forthcoming assembly elections unless the Lok Sabha elections are also held simultaneously - a possibility which cannot be ruled out
In the third category are states where regional parties are major players and where they have to hold their own to keep the BJP in
check.Even if a Grand Alliance is not formed at the national level and there are only state level alliances as in UP etc., the chances of
the BJP decisively losing the elections are fairly bright - but there is one danger which we must keep in mind
Even in the worst case scenario, the BJP is likely to emerge as the single-largest party
There is a strong convention at the centre for the President to invite the single-largest party to form the government
If the BJP gets this invite, then with the resources at its command, it may be able to secure the support of a number of regional parties
and independents to contrive a majority
Opposition parties must keep this possibility in mind and plan their strategy accordingly
A pre-poll alliance is the need of the hour in whatever shape and form it takes place.(Yashwant Sinha is a senior BJP leader and former
Union Minister of External Affairs.)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author
The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of TheIndianSubcontinent and TheIndianSubcontinent does not assume
any responsibility or liability for the same.
