INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Summits of Group of 20 nations invariably happen with at least one crisis burning, which shapes the discussions both in the meeting room
and the one-on-one huddles in the hallways.
Leaders tend to gather around kindred spirits
In fact it could be the trickiest G-20 gathering to date
supply between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Here are eight things to watch as the meeting gets underway:A Reduced Russian Presence
President
Vladimir Putin is skipping the summit, which comes with his war in Ukraine in its ninth month
His troops are bogged down (and in places like Kherson in the south, they have withdrawn)
His economy is under heavy sanction
Sergei Lavrov gets to carry the can this time around
Lavrov may join the leaders in some sessions
economies in the world are set to meet in Bali on Monday afternoon
his February invasion of Ukraine.
Still, the importance of China and the US to each other as export markets has diminished somewhat in
recent years, as tariffs, tensions and trade diversion to other countries have taken their toll on two-way trade
And they do have reason to reset some guardrails on the relationship, perhaps by focusing on common interests such as stemming climate
change and preventing the use of nuclear weapons, particularly by Russia in Ukraine.Ukraine Grain and a Russian Oil Price Cap
The July
with food shortages and put a lid on global inflation
It hit a hiccup last month when Putin briefly walked away from the agreement after an attack on his Black Sea Fleet, before being coaxed
back by Turkey.
Either way the deal is up for renewal on Nov
19, so the clock is ticking
Even if Putin balks at an extension, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations may opt to allow ships to keep coming and going
But shipping companies may decide the risks are too great, and the insurance costs too high.
Meanwhile Group of Seven leaders are still
scrambling to finalize a planned cap on the price of Russian oil exports, needing to convince other countries to at least support a cap in
developed nations with fewer tools to hand to counter food and energy shortages, the ravages of climate change and poverty.
That split will
show up in full force in Bali
And about being pushed to fall into line on sanctions against Russia, or limits on purchases of its energy
It more broadly reflects an increasingly multipolar world where alliances are shifting around China as well as the US, and on a more
Their countries have been trading insults for weeks after Riyadh used its clout at OPEC+ to cut oil production
gasoline prices were on the rise.
The White House accused Saudi Arabia of coercing other OPEC+ countries into agreeing to a huge cut in oil
Some US lawmakers started making noises about curbing weapons sales to Saudi
For his part, the Crown Prince seemed unperturbed, and is sending a signal with reports that Xi will make a visit to Saudi next month.A
Clutch of First Timers
This summit will see some leaders making their G-20 debut
The meeting provides the chance to deepen relationships with others, but also can be riddled with pitfalls for someone navigating the
complexities of the gathering for the first time.
The newbie list includes Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and South Korean
Three G-7 countries have new representatives: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and German Chancellor
Although then-outgoing leader Angela Merkel invited Scholz to the last G-20 in Italy and included him in key meetings in a unusual and
genteel handover process.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will likely be there as a lame duck, having recently lost a run-off vote to
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.Indonesia's Logistical Tap Dance
The hosts will have their hands full just preventing the summit veering off
There is the logistical nightmare of keeping some leaders who don't want to see each other from accidentally meeting in a corridor
least statements of intent, on collective challenges like debt, food security and climate change
Yet the real business will be done in sideline meetings and late-night chats rather than in a big conference room
And perhaps the best Indonesia can hope for is that there are no massive dust-ups in public.
The G-7 summit in Canada in June 2018
potentially represents a cautionary tale of how quickly things can go wrong
Leaders huddled late at night to hash out a communique in the face of vigorous objections by then-US President Donald Trump to the language
An iconic photo showed leaders gathered around Trump, pressing him to sign off
Distractions
For Biden, the meeting risks being overshadowed by his old nemesis
about, especially whether he will now commit himself to seeking re-election (Biden has talked about how he ran in 2020 in order to ward off
a second Trump term).
Another person who might decide to intercede on Bali is North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who has been letting off
more missiles and has made preparations to potentially test an atomic device.
A North Korean nuclear event would immediately steal the
spotlight with leaders from the US (foe), China (ally), Japan (foe), South Korea (foe) and Russia (ally) all in the one place.
