INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
stock market is unchanged in dollar terms
And yet, its weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has zoomed past Taiwan and South Korea to second place, with almost the entire gain
If China has been mired in a surfeit of pessimism, the opposite is true of India
However, a decisive transition may help pull consumer and business sentiment away from near-record lows, shake the property market out of
its slumber and accelerate auto sales
That may also prompt analysts to bump up their forecast of 4% earnings growth over the next 12 months
The economy is now losing momentum, although the market continues to be frothy
Even with some caution getting baked into estimates because of high inflation (hurting margins of local consumer firms) and a global
slowdown (affecting software exporters), the consensus expectation is for earnings to rise by 18% over the next 12 months
Optimism is the highest with banks
working-capital loans even as rising rates have shored up interest margins.
The case for some rotation away from Indian to Chinese stocks
portfolio and pruning exposure to software exporters
In the longer term, India is seeking to buttress its investment appeal by emerging as an alternative to China
subsidies for manufacturers, will work
As Arvind Subramanian, an economic adviser to the Modi administration until 2018, and Josh Felman, a former International Monetary Fund
Felman.
Just the firms controlled by Gautam Adani, the richest Indian businessman, have accounted for a third of the 33% jump, in local
But to the extent the burden of taxation is light on companies, the stock market is unlikely to question the absence of meaningful
purchasing power beyond a tiny affluent class
grown to 57% of gross domestic product from 41%, according to Crisil, an affiliate of S-P Global Inc
As the hunt for yield reaches more of the smaller cities and towns, the $1.6 trillion industry may not take long to catch up with $2
brutal than the $17 billion they have pulled out of India
liquidity is eroding the sway of overseas fund managers
has come to worship profit.
