INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Many observers believe Moscow is behind every significant international development or organization, be that the results of the US
Presidential elections or the decisions of the European Parliament
That is rooted in lack of systemic understanding of international relations and sovereign motivation of its actors
Neither of the two capitals has both motivation and capabilities to control such developments abroad, so before ascribing any role to Moscow
or Tehran, one should better study how things work in reality, rather than according to their imaginary schemes, even if such schemes make
sense to the public.One of these approaches, which is rather similar to the conspiracy theory, is to blame Russia of taking deliberate
actions to strain the relations between Iran and Europe, and subsequently, targeting Iran in the energy market as a potential actor to
relations to enter a new, comprehensive and rather strategic phase
Despite the unprecedented violations and sanctions imposed on Iran by Western countries, the evidences of new cooperation between Iran and
Russia show that the recent alliances are on the path of comprehensive development
Cooperation in the field of advanced technologies (Khayyam remote sensing satellite that lifted off from the Baikonur Commodore),
unprecedented trade volume up to 4 billion dollars in 2022, bilateral military collaboration , gas memorandum between Iran and Russia's
Gazprom and also, Russia's support for Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization shows the remarkable expansion of
strategic relations in recent years, especially after the intensification of Western sanctions on both countries.In a completely simplistic
judgment, some analysts believe in Russia's pre-planned strategy to completely eliminate Iran from global equations, especially by
preventing the restoration of this country's relations with the European Union in the field of energy exports as an alternative to the
sanctioned Russia in this market
In order to justify their claim, they pointed to the military cooperation between Iran and Russia, which became an excuse to intensify the
sanctions of the European Union against Iran, as well as diminishing the possibility of revitalizing the JCPOA, and they consider it as a
scheme by Russia.Spreading such pessimistic views lead to questions that can invalidate such views to some extent
Considering the disconnection between Russia and European countries in the field of energy trade, how Iran is able to supply the amount of
energy needed by Europe as an alternative to Russia in terms of production infrastructure, production volume, export capacity, as well as
manifestation of Russia's willingness to strategic cooperation with Iran.A detailed examination of Iran's production and export capacities
and capabilities in the field of energy such as oil, gas and even petrochemical products can well answer the above question and negate the
mentioned point of view.According to the gas crisis occurred in Europe during the last year, many suppose that Iran will be the best option
to compensate for the shortage of gas in Europe
Declaration of such a proposal shows that some analysts are not informed about the production capacity and conditions of facilities and
infrastructure of Iran's gas fields.According to statistics, the average gas consumption in the country is 250 billion cubic meters per
year, and the total gas production in 2021 was about 269 billion cubic meters
Moreover, Iran's total gas exports to Iraq and Turkey are 17 billion cubic meters annually
Therefore, if we consider consumption and export to Turkey and Iraq, the amount of production is almost equal to both consumption and
Therefore, considering gas export, Iran will need a large investment for development of production infrastructure, that the recent agreement
between Iran and the Russian company Gazprom is concluded with the anticipation of the infrastructure expansion, which is a manifestation of
Russia's willingness to strategic cooperation with Iran even in the field of energy.Others point to Europe's greater need for Iranian oil
than gas, and this will be the best opportunity for Iran to take advantage of the current situation by supplying oil to European union
countries.Although this expectation seems reasonable to some extent, it should be noted that in the current situation Europe's immediate
demand for oil is lower than gas
We should acknowledge that oil transportation is easier than gas, and Europe's supply sources, such as Saudi Arabia have more variety of
Moreover, it should also be taken into consideration that even with restoration of the JCPOA and the beginning process of exporting oil to
Europe, in the current conditions Iran's oil will not have a notable impact on the reduction of Europe's oil demands
Considering the production of 4 million barrels of oil per day and also in light of domestic consumption, Iran's export capacity is expected
to be 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day
Referring to the number of barrels that will be exported to South Korea, Japan, China and India, therefore ultimately we cannot imagine a
significant amount for export to Europe
Although we should admit that this number of barrels will make no difference to Russia and the long-term prospects of this country in
international relations.According to the mentioned points, it implies that some criticisms toward the enlargement of Iran and Russia's
relation are completely thoughtless and stem from the lack of correct and systematic understanding of international relations, and
undoubtedly, some of them are rooted in some historical narratives in the relations between the two countries
The analysis of any international policies should be based on the principles of international relations and realities, not on our excitement
and personal interests to a particular side or even conspiracy theories
The relations between Iran and Russia have been progressing towards comprehensive development in recent years, and its effects can be seen
in the internal and external developments of both countries
One of these fields is energy trade, where both countries have had valuable cooperation to increase each other's production and export
Nevertheless, the Russia's strategy in destruction of relations between Iran and Europe with the aim of maintaining the monopoly of energy
exports is completely simplistic as well as short-sightedness of the depth of Iran-Russia relations in recent years.By Mehdi Soltani is a
student at MGIMO University, Russia
