INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
There are three scenarios about the rebellion of Wagner's forces against the Russian army:1- A possible deception plan by the Russian
intelligence apparatus with the aim of diverting and draining the power and energy of enemy intelligence organizations as well as rival
In this case, the difference in the media narrative will deepen, some local operational tension will intensify, but from a functional point
of view, the tension will not elevate to a strategic level.2- Loyalty is what separates the Wagner unit and the Minister of Defense and the
Chief of General Staff of the Russian Army
The former turned out to be fake, the latter is real
In this case, based on the Russian approach and security-defense strategy, Prigozhin and his loyalists will be dealt with gradually but
decisively.3- A NATO-backed intelligence operation with the aim of disintegrating and weakening Russian forces
Prigozhin has coordinated with a foreign party
Any relationship with a Russian adversary will not flourish because it will highlight betrayal to Russia in alliance with an enemy
This will lead to the collapse among the ranks of Wagner's forces
Part of NATO's goal will be achieved, but at the end of the day, it will consolidate Russia's defense and security superiority.The
important point is that Wagner, which is strongly dependent on the Russian defense sector, at least in the field of ammunition and logistics
in the battlefield, will not be able to resist the Russia's powerful military.