[Russia] - Wagner Mutiny: More Questions Than Answers

INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
He was last seen late Saturday in an SUV leaving the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, where his fighters had seized a military
headquarters.The Kremlin said Prigozhin will be allowed to leave the country for Belarus, and will not be prosecuted.But experts say it is
unclear if Prigozhin will be left in peace.Military blogger Michael Nacke suggested that Prigozhin planned to set up base with some of his
Wagner forces in Belarus and continue his operations in Africa.However, he said that personal guarantees of Putin and Belarus leader
imprisoned, he can be killed and nothing will happen," Nacke told AFP.He added that many members of the Wagner group were "disappointed" by
the climbdown.What will happen to Wagner?Prigozhin attempted a mutiny after President Vladimir Putin said members of his increasingly
powerful mercenary outfit must sign contracts with the Defense Ministry."They wanted to disband PMC (Private Military Company) Wagner,"
Prigozhin said in his last audio message when he announced he was aborting his bid to storm Moscow and topple the country's military
leadership.The Kremlin said that members of Prigozhin's outfit who did not take part in the rebellion would still be able to sign contracts
Ukraine."Wagner might be disbanded in its entirety, or absorbed," wrote Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses, a U.S.-based
think-tank."The Russian state had been trying to set up competing organizations and this process is likely to accelerate now."Tatiana
Stanovaya, head of political analysis firm R.Politik, added: "Putin doesn't need Wagner or Prigozhin
inspecting Russian troops, in his first public appearance since the mutiny."Under pressure from the rebel, Putin will do nothing," said
pro-Kremlin political observer Sergei Markov.Rob Lee of the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute said that the insurrection made
Shoigu and armed forces chief of staff Valery Gerasimov look weak."But it also demonstrated how important it is for Putin to have loyal
figures in charge of his military and security services, particularly after an armed Russian group showed that is a potential threat to
such scale might have taken weeks to prepare.Some analysts said that Prigozhin would never launch a suicide mission alone.Others said the
mercenary chief acted out of desperation, and his "march of justice" was the only way for him to receive security guarantees as the Defense
service, raised further questions
appeared to mock Shoigu and Gerasimov when Prigozhin told him in Rostov-on-Don that he wanted to see them
mutiny would not affect Moscow's assault on Ukraine, and some military analysts appear to agree."After Bakhmut, the military was far less
was omnipresent on the front
It was quite narrow, and Wagner was not used for defense in the south."However, in the middle of Kyiv's counteroffensive, the events could