INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Reports circulated last week that Russia had withdrawn much of its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol in annexed Crimea
This followed a wave of attacks from Ukraine attacking warships, submarines, and infrastructure in the strategic naval base.Though the news
Navy in the Black Sea, such conclusions may be premature
Ukraine.Where does the story come from?The Black Sea Fleet has been pummelled by Ukrainian drones and missile strikes for months
Some of these ships were later seen docked in the Russian port of Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers away.However, the withdrawal does not
in or near their bases to both [unmanned surface vessels] and long-range strikes, so some dispersal immediately afterwards is natural and
interests.Sevastopol was founded as a naval base under the rule of Catherine the Great after the Russian Empire annexed the Crimean Khanate
Its strategic location allowed Russia to control the Black Sea, and made it a target for armies ranging from the British and Ottoman Empires
to Nazi Germany.Control over Sevastopol became a point of tension between Kyiv and Moscow after the fall of the Soviet Union, with the
Russian Senate going as far as to endorse claiming the port as a Russian exclave
A series of agreements signed in 1997 saw Ukraine and Russia agree to share the naval base, with Kyiv receiving $526 million in return for
Since February 2022, missiles launched from warships and submarines in the port have targeted Ukrainian infrastructure and major cities like
Where could the Black Sea Fleet move?Satellite imagery shows vessels which were previously stationed in Sevastopol in other Crimean ports
such as Feodosia as well as Novorossiysk in the Krasnodar region
port, Novorossiysk was already home to parts of the Black Sea Fleet
It is smaller and shallower than Sevastopol, and competition with trading vessels for berths limits how many ships and submarines it can
While Kyiv has a limited number of missiles with the range to strike the port, it has achieved some success with unmanned air and seacraft
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed in August to have fended off an attempt to attack the port with sea drones
signed an agreement to host the fleet at Ochamchire
The port has been under defacto Russian control since 2009, and has been used to transport coal from areas of Ukraine under Russian
Ochamchire have undergone modernization, neither has the sophisticated infrastructure of Sevastopol
This allows the port to recover from Ukrainian airstrikes, making it a target for Kyiv in its own right
Equipping other ports with similar facilities would be expensive and unachievable in the short term
Why would leaving Sevastopol be significant?Controlling Sevastopol allows Russia easy access to Ukrainian waters, where it conducts patrols,
retreat would not stop the fleet from posing a threat to Ukraine
Russia could continue to launch strikes on Ukraine from warships stationed in Novorossiysk.The British Defense Ministry has said that damage
