INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
NEW DELHI: Last week, Estonia raised concerns about Russia's alleged strategy of using immigration as a tool at Europe's eastern borders,
particularly affecting Estonia and Finland
Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur, during a meeting in Stockholm with Nordic and Baltic defence ministers, asserted that the recent
influx of hundreds of asylum seekers at these borders is a "fully state-orchestrated" operation by Moscow.This accusation was further
border crossings and seek assistance from the European border guard agency Frontex
Pevkur highlighted the implausibility of these migrants, originating from countries like Yemen, Syria, and Somalia, ending up at a remote
Finnish border crossing during winter.Reuters reported that Finnish officials believe Russia is directly involved in the arrival of
asylum-seekers in the past two weeks.The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington DC, described the current
situation as an "apparent hybrid warfare tactic" similar to the events on the Polish border in 2021, involving Russia and Belarus
This tactic, according to the ISW, is "likely similarly aimed at destabilizing Nato."Finland, historically non-aligned, joined NATO as its
31st member in April, a decision driven by the perceived threat from Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.'Weaponized
migration'The concept of using immigration as a weapon, often termed as "weaponized migration," is a strategy where a state indirectly uses
the movement of people to exert pressure or influence on another state or group of states
In the context of Russia's relationship with Nato and Europe, this strategy could potentially be employed in various ways.Historical
contextRussia's relationship with Nato has been historically complex and often adversarial
The expansion of Nato into Eastern Europe and former Soviet states has been a point of contention for Russia, which sees this as a direct
threat to its sphere of influence and national security
In recent years, under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has increasingly asserted its influence in the region, leading to heightened
tensions.Migration as a geopolitical toolMigration can be used as a tool in international relations to create economic, social, and
political challenges for target countries
In Europe, where many countries are already grappling with the challenges of integration, social cohesion, and economic support for refugees
and migrants, a sudden increase in migration can exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to political instability and a shift in public
opinion.Information warfareAlongside physical migration, Russia could use its sophisticated information warfare capabilities to amplify the
societal impact of migration in Europe
This could involve spreading disinformation to exacerbate fears about immigration, deepen societal divisions, and undermine the political
cohesion of Nato countries, particularly those with significant populist movements.Implications for Nato and EuropeStrain on European Unity:
Increased migration can strain the political unity of the EU and Nato, as member states have differing views and capacities to handle
This could lead to internal conflicts and a weakening of the collective stance against Russian aggression.Shift in security prioritiesA
significant increase in migration could force Nato and European countries to shift their focus and resources from defense and external
security to internal security and border control, potentially weakening their stance against Russian military actions.Public opinion and
political shiftsThe societal impact of increased migration could lead to a rise in nationalist and populist movements within Europe
These movements might advocate for policies that are more isolationist and less supportive of collective security arrangements like Nato,
Europe, marked by the most significant influx of asylum seekers since the 2015-2016 crisis, is bolstering support for far-right and
This shift is poised to significantly influence European politics for the foreseeable future.A recent example of this trend is the victory
of Geert Wilders in the Dutch elections
Wilders, a far-right politician, has centered his political agenda around anti-migration policies for the past 15 years
His election win is a significant indicator of voters' inclination towards anti establishment figures, as noted by analysts.(With inputs
