INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
The year 2024 will be a critical one
China will be locked in a race against time as its population ages
And the natural world will reach a new series of tipping points
But there are some reasons for cautious optimism.With so much happening, it can be hard to know where to look
Here Guardian correspondents offer their take on what to watch out for in 2024.Gaza conflict could spread to West BankProtesters shout
slogans during a rally in support of the Gaza Strip after the Friday noon prayer in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on 29 December
Photograph: Zain Jaafar/AFP/Getty ImagesThe fifth and bloodiest Gaza war shows no sign of slowing or stopping.Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
officials have said they expect hostilities to continue into January before a second pause for humanitarian aid or an exchange of hostages
and prisoners can take place
deeply unpopular with the Palestinian public
East Jerusalem and the West Bank, where the Islamist group has active cells and higher levels of popular support
The risk of escalation between Israel and the formidable Iran-backed Shia faction Hezbollah to the north in Lebanon remains high.What 2024
The former president is a strong supporter of the Israeli right and could lend his approval to policies such as the annexation of the West
Photograph: Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty ImagesThe 2024 US presidential election will feel like the third episode of a trilogy
Then there was his bruising defeat by Biden in 2020, followed by election denialism and the storming of the US Capitol on 6 January
He is expected to dispense with Republican primary rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in short order
Then he will seek to regain the White House while fending off 91 criminal charges in four jurisdictions, raising the unique prospect of a
presidential nominee commuting between campaign rallies and courtrooms.Trump is already trying to blur the distinction and turn his legal
troubles to his political advantage, claiming he is a victim of a deep state conspiracy
The White House may be his only get-out-of-jail card
grievances more petty, the extremism more extreme
There are plenty of pundits and historians who predict that a Trump second term would hollow out American democracy and spell a drift
towards Hungarian-style authoritarianism.Standing in the way is Biden, who can point to a healthy economy, a long list of legislative
accomplishments and robust support for reproductive rights
But he is, at 81, the oldest president in American history
Does he have what it takes for a long and gruelling campaign? Can he win back young and progressive voters disenchanted by his handling of
the Israel-Hamas war?Some Democrats worry the answer is no, especially after a series of polls show Trump winning a hypothetical matchup,
but struggle to come up with a viable alternative at this stage in the game
the crisis of trust and spread of disinformation.It all makes for a combustible mix in a country where the threat of political violence is
The centre held and, as Biden put it, democracy prevailed
But it turns out that was not the end of the drama
The third act is still to come.David Smith, Washington bureau chiefCrisis points for the natural world The McDougall Creek wildfire burns on
the mountainside above houses in West Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada, on 18 August
Wildlife populations have plunged by an average of almost 70% since 1970
Climate tipping points are approaching and our planet is on course to breach the 1.5C climate threshold by 2027
Humans are driving the largest loss of life since the time of the dinosaurs, and governments have repeatedly failed to take action, never
meeting a single UN target on biodiversity loss.At the end of 2022, the world came together at the biodiversity Cop15 in Montreal to agree
on a new set of targets, promising that this decade would be different
seriously.When the figures are in for 2023, the world may record a significant drop in deforestation for the first time in years, as leaders
of countries that steward large rainforests take their responsibilities more seriously
Brazil and Colombia have both recorded slowing losses; Indonesia and Malaysia have maintained big falls
Amid the gloom, there is cause for optimism: stopping deforestation is crucial for keeping the 1.5C warming target alive and avoiding the
the Cop16 biodiversity summit.As the climate crisis escalates, it will accelerate the loss of wildlife
We are seeing increasing awareness that these two crises are entwined, and that understanding will only deepen as we see the effects of
climate breakdown on the natural world, and the central role of nature-based solutions in addressing it.The issue of nature loss will become
even more prominent in 2024, as its consequences become more visible in back yards and beaches, and as people observe first-hand the decline
of beloved species and precious ecosystems
Patrick Greenfield and Phoebe Weston, biodiversity correspondentsA Chinese race against timeKindergarten children dressed in traditional
year kicks off with a presidential election in Taiwan, which will set the tone for cross-strait relations for the next four years
Beijing still holds out (increasingly vain) hope of convincing Taiwan to accept annexation and is expected to wage interference and
influence operations in an attempt to push voters towards Beijing-friendly candidates
But after years of escalating military harassment, threats and intimidation of the island, there is little appetite for Chinese
women are refusing to toe the party line.Although Beijing has made it clear that procreation is a national priority, and tightened the
With an ever-increasing cohort of pensioners who expect comfortable retirement support and are willing to protest when their benefits are
Although China has a worryingly high youth unemployment rate, many blue-collar industries such as manufacturing have labour shortages.The
government expects nearly 30m manufacturing jobs to go unfilled by 2025
Davidson, correspondent in TaiwanSweden may finally join NatoA Swedish army combat team patrolling a village street in Gotland, Sweden
and Magdalena Andersson, held a joint press conference in Stockholm in which they made their interest in joining Nato publicly
Democrat leaders in April 2022
Nordics will be represented in the alliance, creating a new power base in northern Europe and, critically, making the Baltic a Nato sea
under way.Miranda Bryant, Nordic correspondentA decisive year for UkraineA missile explodes in the sky over Kyiv, Ukraine, on 29 December
full-scale assault on the country in February 2022
After the initial panic, in the first year of the war there was a national rallying around president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, remarkable
resilience and a series of battlefield gains that led many to believe victory could be just around the corner.The second half of 2023
provided a sobering counterpoint to those hopes: stalemate on the battlefield, rising casualties and exhaustion, and wavering international
spilling into public view.The coming year is likely to be decisive for the war and the future of Ukraine, but how things pan out will depend
on many things, not least on how strong western support remains for Kyiv
The impact on the tone and substance of the Ukraine debate of a Trump presidential run, let alone a victory, could be enormous.What happens
in Moscow will be important, and the domestic political scene in Kyiv is also likely to become turbulent
fierce opposition by civil society and would-be political opponents, who claimed it would be supremely unfair to hold an election in
wartime, and would simply result in a coronation for Zelenskiy.One of the biggest questions is whether exhaustion and battlefield losses
will force Kyiv to seek some kind of a peace deal with Moscow
Up to now, the realisation that any deal would be weak and likely to be discarded by Vladimir Putin whenever he felt ready to attack again
has prevented all talk of a ceasefire
Photograph: Rodrigo Abd/APArgentina will enter uncharted political waters in 2024 after the radical libertarian Javier Milei became
president in December, turning Buenos Aires into a new place of pilgrimage for the Trumpian global far-right.Few analysts dare to guess how
insurgent campaign, the 53-year-old outsider brandished a chainsaw to symbolise his desire for radical change and austerity
predict in El Salvador, where another rightwing populist, Nayib Bukele, will seek reelection in February and is assured victory given the
sky-high approval ratings his authoritarian crackdown on crime has produced
But few fancy her chances against the authoritarian incumbent who took power in 2013 and shows no sign of relinquishing power
Some suspect Maduro is deliberately manufacturing a crisis with neighbouring Guyana over the Essequibo region in order to declare a state of
former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, will face arrest for a litany of alleged crimes committed during his turbulent 2019-2023
presidency, including inciting the January 2023 uprising that sought to bring down the government of his successor
Tom Phillips, Latin American correspondentMigration: a collective failure of EuropeAn Italian coastguard vessel carrying people rescued at
sea passes a tourist boat near the Sicilian island of Lampedusa, Italy
Photograph: Yara Nardi/ReutersNearly 2,200 people have died or gone missing in 2023 while attempting to cross the central Mediterranean from
north Africa to reach Europe
north Africa every day.Lampedusa, the small Sicilian island closer to Tunisia than Italy, has had an increase in migrant arrivals since last
controversial agreements with the countries from where the migrants depart, such as Tunisia, which has surpassed Libya as the main departure
government, which announced plans to create centres in Albania to accommodate 3,000 asylum seekers.The agreement has been criticised by aid
Italy and the UK may have set a dangerous precedent that other countries dealing with an increase in migrant arrivals could follow.In 2024,
we may see non-EU countries transformed into detention centres in exchange for the promise of EU membership
Serbia and Bosnia, countries at the centre of the Balkan migration route, could benefit from such deals.The more recent signal of this new
shift in direction came before Christmas, as negotiators from the European parliament and the Council of the EU reached a political
agreement on a fresh migration and asylum pact
The pact will encompass a pre-entry screening process and amplify dependence on countries beyond the EU to oversee migration affairs
By endorsing its deals, Brussels aims to transfer the responsibility of protecting people outside its borders.In 2024, we may see fewer
migrants on European territories, but an increasing number of deaths at the gates of Europe, with asylum seekers forced to undertake
increasingly hazardous routes to avoid violence from border guards.Lorenzo Tondo, Italy and the migration crisis correspondentPolitical
timebombs in the European UnionGeert Wilders arrives at Cafe Seepaardje to respond to the results of the Dutch elections on 22 November
Photograph: Hollandse Hoogte/ShutterstockPolitics in Brussels in 2024 will be dominated by three issues
Two of them are well known: Ukraine and migration
Both are challenging but the strategies are well rehearsed
But it is the spectre of far-right parties establishing themselves in the heart of the EU, the European parliament, that is causing
nervousness that EU values around equality and discrimination will be challenged by those promoting xenophobia, racism and climate
denial.That is why there is such a rush to get new laws over the line in the first two months of 2024
With European parliamentary elections due to take place in June, the cut off point for new laws to be agreed is the second week in February,
giving officials and politicians enough time to legally finesse and translate the laws before the final plenary session in April.The
complexion of the new parliament matters more than most because it will determine EU-wide priorities up to 2029 at a time when the EU is
expected to expand to include Ukraine and Moldova
This is why the politics of migration is so important.One senior official working in the field said the EU needed to make a quantum leap and
Poverty and climate change in Africa will not go away
Bangladesh Awami League Central Committee, during his election campaign in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on 28 December
Photograph: Anik Rahman/NurPhoto/Rex/ShutterstockAs it is in much of the world, 2024 will be a big year for elections in south Asia with
Bangladesh, Pakistan and India all due to go to the polls within the first six months
Yet amid fears of rising authoritarianism across the region, few expect these elections to be a boost to democracy and instead will probably
return some very familiar faces back to power at the top.In the buildup to the Bangladesh election on 7 January, where the prime minister,
Sheikh Hasina, is seeking a fourth term in power, all pretence of free and fair elections has gone
Tens of thousands of opposition leaders have been jailed, opposition protests have been hit with police violence and dozens have been
killed.The opposition Bangladesh National party has now said it will boycott the polls
powerful military.A concerted effort has been made by the military to ensure that Khan will not be able to contest and that his Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf party has been systematically demolished, even as support among voters remains strong
after five years of exile, in an attempt to bring back some stability to the economically ailing country
almost 1 billion eligible voters and all eyes will also be on its elections expected to be held in April or May
With just a few months to go, the likelihood of the nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, returning to power for a third term is seen
as almost inevitable.He has overseen an unprecedented consolidation of power and his Hindu nationalist politics are highly popular,
particularly in the populous northern states, while the opposition coalition is seen as weak and fractured and many of its leaders have been
north-east AsiaThe South Korean president, Yoon Suk Yeol (right), and the Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, have spent this year
As his country prepared to see out 2023, his Liberal Democratic party [LDP] was embroiled in a funding scandal that could result in legal
action being taken against MPs who allegedly failed to report income raised at party events
Japan is not due to hold a general election until October 2025 at the latest, but Kishida could face a challenger when the party votes for a
powerhouses: Kishida, the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, and the South Korean president, Yoon Suk Yeol
South Korea and its former colonial ruler, Japan, spent this year mending fences after years of rancour over their wartime legacy
Now there is mild optimism that the spirit of cooperation could extend to Beijing, after the countries agreed that their leaders should meet
in 2024 if, as some media reports suggest, he appears in court in the first hearing of what promises to be one of the most closely watched
trials in living memory.Justin McCurry, Japan and Korea correspondent
This article first appeared/also appeared in theguardian.com
