INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
By Simon Kennedy and Alexandra HarrisPeople charged with running or monitoring the world economy are set for a busy week before those in the
Northern Hemisphere get to enjoy their summer vacations.
Central bankers in the United States , Japan, the U.K., Brazil and India all meet
to set their respective monetary policies at a time when Eric Oynoyan, senior European interest-rate strategist at BNP Paribas SA, is
soon flesh out its plan for eventually adjusting stimulus, all 44 economists surveyed predict the Bank of Japan will maintain the current
setting on interest rates
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda also will unveil fresh forecasts
In China, a purchasing manager index is expected to show manufacturing expanded at a slower pace again July
A wave of statistics in the euro area is predicted to show inflation ticking up above 2 percent in France, unemployment staying put in
Germany and the economy slowing slightly in the second quarter in Spain and Italy
reports on potential Bank of Japan changes already helped spur a slight steepening of developed-market yield curves
As a result, investors will be on the lookout for any hint of a tweak that could put the brakes on the longer flattening trend that has
dominated major bond markets.
WEDNESDAYUnited States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues meet with all but one analyst
predicting no change in rates
By contrast, onlookers are bracing for the Reserve Bank of India to raise its benchmark as emerging market currencies get buffeted, although
The United States Treasury Department delivers details of its bond selling with Wall Street analysts readying for an increase in supply
Also in Washington, the United States Agriculture Department stops giving crop data to media organizations under embargo.
Market View:
Traders will be looking to see if the Fed firms up expectations for a rate hike in September and clues on just how high rates might
Meanwhile, the market will be watching whether Treasury, in its attempt to fund a widening budget deficit, opts to raise the five-year
auction size by $1 billion every month, rather than once a quarter.
THURSDAYThe Bank of England is expected to raise its key rate to 0.75
percent, the highest since 2009, although not every policy maker may back the decision as risks of a disorderly Brexit mount
There will be close attention on the vote count too.
FRIDAYThe first Friday of the month means the United States publishes its nonfarm
The latest Bloomberg survey points to payrolls rising 193,000 in July and unemployment dipping to 3.9 percent
Also of interest amid the trade war will be the United States trade balance, which is seen swelling to a deficit of $46.1 billion.
Market
reaction in recent months has tended to be relatively fleeting
With the United States unemployment rate near its lowest levels in nearly two decades, a key focus will likely be average hourly earnings
and what that might say about inflation more broadly.
