INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
(Photo: PTI)4 min read Last Updated Oct 08 2024 | 2:40 PM IST
As the counting of votes for the 2024 Haryana and Jammu - Kashmir Assembly
elections progresses, the trends suggest yet another instance of exit polls missing the mark
In Haryana, by 1.45 pm, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared to be heading for victory, leading in 50 constituencies
In contrast, in Jammu - Kashmir (J-K), the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance was firmly ahead, leading in 52 seats.
A far cry
from what the exit polls predicted for both the states, the trends suggest another setback for companies declaring these exit polls after
the Lok Sabha 2024 election debacle
a majority with 53-65 seats in the 90-seat Haryana Assembly, while the BJP was expected to take just 18-28 seats, and the INLD-BSP alliance,
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was not expected to win any seats.
Similarly, Republic TV-Matrize had forecast 55-62 seats for Congress, with
the BJP trailing at 18-24 seats
as per the latest Election Commission (EC) trends, the BJP is now projected to win 50 seats in Haryana
Despite Congress leading earlier in the day, a surprising shift during counting put the BJP back in front
By 1:50 pm, Congress had leads in 34 of the 90 seats.Read More:Jammu - Kashmir elections 2024: Check complete winners list for 90
seats
Who would win the J-K elections 2024 as per exit polls?
In Jammu - Kashmir, most exit polls predicted a hung assembly
Contrary to these forecasts, EC trends now show a decisive win for the Congress-NC alliance
To form a government in J-K, a party needs 46 seats in the 90-member assembly.
The Congress and NC formed an alliance against the BJP in
the J-K Assembly elections
According to Axis My India, the BJP was predicted to win 24-34 seats with a 21 per cent vote share, while the Congress-NC-CPIM alliance was
expected to take 35-45 seats, with a 38 per cent vote share
This poll estimated that NC would take 24 seats, Congress 14, and CPIM half a seat.
Seat projections change in J-K
Dainik Bhaskar, on
the other hand, predicted the NC-Congress alliance would secure 35-40 seats, with the BJP getting 20-25
Independents were expected to perform better than the PDP, which was forecasted to win 4-7 seats
Republic-Gulistan anticipated 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress and 28-30 for the BJP, with independents playing a pivotal role with 19-23
seats and the PDP securing 5-7 seats.
However, if the current EC trends hold, the Congress-NC alliance may win 52 seats in J-K
Independents are leading in seven seats, while the BJP remains far from the majority, holding 28 seats
Farooq Abdullah's NC is on track to become the largest party, with 43 seats.
Exit polls went wrong in Lok Sabha 2024 too
Exit polls
also missed the mark in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where many predicted the BJP-led NDA would win over 350 seats
However, the BJP ended up with 240 out of 543 seats, while Congress, in alliance with the INDIA bloc, made significant gains, winning 99
seats.First Published: Oct 08 2024 | 2:40 PMIST
