INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
On February 5, 2025, the oil market experienced a significant downturn
measures against Iran.WTI crude, traded in the Nymex, closed down by 2.29% at US$71.03 per barrel, a fall of US$1.67
Meanwhile, Brent crude on the ICE fell by 2.08%, or US$1.59, concluding the day at US$74.61 per barrel.An unexpected increase in United
States oil stocks by 8.66 million barrels, bringing the total to 423.79 million barrels, was the main catalyst for the price drop
Analysts had only forecasted an increase of 1.3 million barrels, revealing a stark misjudgment in market expectations.From a technical
perspective, WTI broke below the key support level of US$72.00, encountering the next support at US$70.00
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) now indicates oversold conditions, suggesting a potential short-term bounce if demand recovers.However,
the moving averages are bearish, with the price trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a downtrend likely to
(Photo Internet reproduction)For Brent, the scenario mirrors WTI with a breach below the 50-day moving average, pointing towards further
declines if it fails to reclaim this level
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has shown a bearish crossover, further confirming the downward momentum.United States
Foreign Minister Araghchi and President Pezeshkian have both downplayed the impact of United States sanctions.Market analysts from ING
suggest that even with reduced Iranian oil, global prices might not decrease as anticipated, due to other market forces at play
The backdrop of potential United States -China trade tensions adds another layer of complexity, with fears that global demand could
weaken.This scenario is echoed by comments from Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB, who sees the market as squeezed between trade war anxieties and
geopolitical maneuvers, and economic forecasts
Traders will continue to navigate these waters, with eyes peeled for shifts in United States policy, Iranian responses, and any
developments in United States -China relations that could sway demand.
