INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
Russia has posted its largest budget deficit in three years while depleting its rainy day fund by 57% since the start of the war.However,
analysts say the Kremlin still has enough resources to cannibalize the civilian economy to support its war spending, at least for 2025.Where
finance investment, Russia has tapped into the National Wealth Fund (NWF), a rainy day fund that Moscow filled with surplus oil and gas
liquid holdings shrank by 57% since the pre-war level of 2022 and now stand at the equivalent of 3.8 trillion rubles or 2.6% of the
officials and analysts acknowledge the strains on its economy but do not foresee the depletion of its rainy day fund in 2025 without a
China-United States trade war and the ensuing global financial shock, which could lead to a decline in demand for oil and gas and thus to a
the NWF will be sufficient to finance only one full year of high budget expenditures
non-liquid assets are designed for long-term investments, such as strategic infrastructure projects or company shares, and are therefore not
are projected to grow by 18% in 2025, in part due to tax increases on individuals and corporations
trillion rubles, or 13.6% of GDP, so it can borrow from companies and individuals, for example by offering them high rates of return
these tactics has flaws: more borrowing will exacerbate the problem of high inflation, while budget cuts will depress economic activity
is true that Russia will struggle to maintain business as usual in the civilian economy if the war continues, the country still has enough
several risk factors, according to Alexander Kolyandr, a financial analyst and researcher for the Center for European Policy Analysis
still that Russia will have enough liquidity to cover the deficit by borrowing and the country will avoid a "fiscal implosion or severe
businesses can survive another "year of double-digit interest rates on loans" at the cost of cutting investment, economic analyst Alexandra
