INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
strong level of 90 to the dollar.Further appreciation or sustained stability will require a significant reduction in geopolitical tensions
and the lifting of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports, Renaissance Capital said in a note on Monday.Current forecasts place the
ruble's average exchange rate for 2025 within a broad range of 80 to 100 per United States dollar, depending on external conditions.At
International Monetary Fund
on ruble appreciation is the need to maintain a current account surplus, which Russia has relied on to stabilize its external position
Even if geopolitical tensions ease, a persistent capital outflow or continued domestic demand for foreign assets would limit ruble
Moreover, the Russian Central Bank is likely to continue rebuilding reserves, adding further constraints.Rencap outlined four potential
expected to remain above 100 per United States dollar, with the current account surplus projected at 2.2% of GDP.Conflict freeze and
partial sanctions relief: If hostilities subside and United States sanctions are lifted, Russian oil discounts would narrow, economic
uncertainty would decline and capital outflows would be curtailed
This scenario would see the ruble stabilize at 95-96 per United States dollar, with a 1.4% of GDP current account surplus.Comprehensive
sanctions relief: If restrictions on Russian oil transportation are removed by both the United States and the EU, oil discounts would be
minimized, and trade settlements would improve
While some capital controls would persist, the ruble could strengthen to 87-88 per United States dollar, with a current account surplus of
0.8% of GDP.Peak appreciation: Under optimal conditions, an 82-83 per United States dollar rate could be achieved temporarily, but this
18 and have gone well for Russia
echoing Kremlin talking points
NATO membership for Ukraine.Since then, United States National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has said any peace deal should be founded on the
that includes presidential elections as the second step, before a ceasefire deal is agreed, that will likely see Zelenskiy replaced as
president.Despite these projections, Rencap cautions that two major risks remain
Firstly, financial account flows could diverge from expectations due to unforeseen capital movements or potential asset unfreezing
While the currency could strengthen in the event of geopolitical de-escalation, its long-term resilience depends on policy shifts, capital
