INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
American leadership, but it now faces deadlock, driven by battlefield shifts and deepening mistrust.Negotiations in Riyadh earlier this
month underscore the rift
The United States seeks a broad ceasefire to halt hostilities swiftly, a priority some attribute to domestic pressure on President Donald
A deal to resume Black Sea grain exports has stalled, with European Union leaders, at a March 15 Brussels summit, declining to lift
diplomatic sources say.A 30-day truce on energy facility strikes, announced in mid-March, lacks consensus: Russia cites a March 18 start,
issues.Mounting ObstaclesMultiple factors entrench the stalemate
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a March 25 address, dismissed diplomacy as futile, betting on outlasting Vladimir Putin, and has
Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking in Brussels on March 22, ruled out normalizing ties with Russia for decades, yet countries like
Hungary and Slovakia signal willingness to negotiate, offering Washington potential leverage.In the United States , the process
compromise, a divide highlighted by the leaked March 20 Signal chat.Russia, meanwhile, holds firm
restraint in avoiding heavy strikes on Kyiv suggests a bid for victory without endless war, observers say
Still, Russian military voices push for escalation, fearing another Minsk-style delay.United States Options NarrowThe risks are acute
Failure could lead Russia to escalate infrastructure attacks, threatening a humanitarian crisis, or, in an extreme case, hint at nuclear
shift some Ukrainian officials call strategic opportunism.United States options are constrained
Waiting for Russian gains could force Ukraine and Europe to yield, especially as Biden-era aid, projected to lapse by July 2025 per Pentagon
estimates, faces a Congress reluctant to extend funding.Alternatively, Washington could reduce support to nudge Kyiv toward
limit territorial losses are feasible, though prior leaks and Russian wariness complicate efforts
Escalation lacks congressional support, and withdrawal risks diminishing United States influence in Europe.A Fragile FutureThe impasse
exposes wider fault lines
deal or force, awaits the coming months, with steep costs looming regardless.Ukraine Peace Talks Teeter as Uncertainty Clouds Progress
