INSUBCONTINENT EXCLUSIVE:
posted in January.The Russian Central Bank has been predicting a sharp economic slowdown since August 2024 as the regulator started to
PMI collapse signaled a renewed deterioration in operating conditions and was the sharpest decline since April 2022 and the first
here, analysts at Renaissance Capital said in a note in February
However, sky-high interest rates, currently at 21%, are unlikely to be cut anytime soon, the analysts said.The poor performance in
manufacturing is mirrored in both the service sector and the combined PMI scores
?In February 2025, Russia's services sector also posted a notable deceleration in growth
?At the same time, the composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services data, slipped to 50.4 in February from January's 12-month
?New services and combined PMI scores are due to be posted later this week and are expected to show similar falls to below the 50
benchmark.The contraction was led by a solid fall in production, ending a four-month run of expansion
S-P Global noted that the decline in output was the sharpest since July 2022.The downturn was attributed to weakening demand, with new order
inflows falling for the first time since October 2023
Export sales also declined, compounding the reduction in total new business.Manufacturers responded by curtailing input purchases, drawing
chain pressures eased slightly, delays linked to logistics and rail transport continued to affect delivery times.As Rencap predicted,
Output charges rose further, but the pace of selling price inflation was the slowest in two years and below the historical series
measure of how well the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry are managing the enforced economic slow-down to tackle inflation.A positive
sign that the authorities are doing a good job so far is that despite the downturn in demand, business confidence improved, driven by
This outlook prompted modest hiring, with employment rising at the second-fastest pace since August 2024
However, job creation remained marginal.Backlogs of work declined at an accelerated pace, reflecting the combination of higher staffing and
industrial economy as subdued demand and logistical constraints weigh on performance, despite pockets of optimism and easing cost
pressures.This article first appeared in bne IntelliNews.
